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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Big Bucks who wrote (10164)	6/6/2004 12:31:13 AM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

RE: "...why AMAT share price is in a steady price decline even though sales, margins and profitability has been increasing." AMAT hit a low of just over $10 in October 2002, pretty close to the historical trough valuation of 2 times book. AMAT went from $10 to about $25 in November 2003 and January 2004. It has consolidated to just under $19, now. Why is it declining? Why did France build the Maginot Line? Both are how to win the last war. The market knows about cycles and has decided that the up cycle is just about at its peak. When AMAT's CFO says we are at the beginning of the cycle not the end, the market thinks of many executives and themselves, the security industry, and decides that experience says he is either incompetent or dishonest and not to be believed. Do you know what is best about a doom sayer who says that the end of the world will come tomorrow? You can forget him the day after tomorrow. The market says the peak will arrive shortly. When we are a couple of quarters out from here and EPS is much higher and still rising and the peak has not come, there will be a reevaluation and prices will be higher. Your "direct correlation" is, logically, very weak. Fortunately, you can't get two Fs in Investing 101. BUY LOW, SELL HIGH is still valid. I don't think short term market psychology need be considered. Of course, I consider "fighting market psychology" what I did in the 2nd quarter of 2000 when I went to 75% cash and put 60% into 5 year CDs yielding an average 7.7%. I expect to pick my battles again. I have given much thought to what may reliably increase ones profits, and I have long ago concluded that your strategy is not reliable. I guess I believe "A Random Walk Down Wall Street". There are no studies that indicate that buy and hold based on superior fundamental research has no expectation of profit. Now, in life people often do the right thing for the wrong reasons, and, occasionally, the wrong thing for the right reasons. This and an A in Divination 101 could make you profitable.

To: Big Bucks who wrote (10164)	6/6/2004 9:07:02 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

Re: When was the last time AMAT was over $30.....not since the last split before the market downturn.....and when there were ~800M shares outstanding....to me that is a direct correlation. Have you looked at the timeframe you have chosen for your "correlation"? It is the worst in history for the sector. Be careful before looking for correlations in narrow windows of time. And regarding shares outstanding, do you never expect EMC, INTC, MSFT, CSCO, or GE to ever rise again? They all have far more shares outstanding than AMAT does. And I am curious what is the magic number for shares outstanding before it prevents a stock from rising? Brian