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Strategies & Market Trends : China Warehouse- More Than Crockery -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sammaster who wrote (3264)	6/11/2004 8:39:16 AM
From: RealMuLan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6370

>>dropping from 10% to 4% is still growth so would expect oil demand to go up as well, just not as fast...<< 7% growth is the target now, 4% would mean recession for China<g> >>seems like chinas oil demand will go up even in a slowdown<< For those who have cars (1 million private cars in Beijing only, and the total pop. in Beijing is 13 million now), there is no slowdown. Quite a few friends of mine drive to work. So oil demand in China can only goes up. Although the auto market seems overheating. In April, the car inventory increase 27% comparing with early 2004. And May would be just as bad, if not worse. So looks like the car makers will have to cut down the price pretty soon. I have no sympathy to those auto makers. They have made tens of millions in China by selling out-of-date models at the price higher than the latest models. >>have you seen any recent statistics on whether china is slowing down after all the recent loan regulations/controls? << I don't think there will be a suddern slow down, since the gov. does not want that. RMB loan and personal savings still increases, but at a low pace comparing with same time last year. So looks like economic adjustment at the Macro level is working.The inflation is ok up until now, but because the lowest living subsidy is going to be increased for about 1/3, so many people anticipate the inflation is going to pick up. Everything is good in Beijing except the hot weather. Today is about 37-38 C degree, feels like an oven.