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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: energyplay who wrote (50948)	6/15/2004 4:21:13 AM
From: Seeker of Truth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

I doubt that there is much investment significance to the state of the Quebec separatist movement. For one thing, the Liberals are running the province now and no matter how much more popular the separatists are, the next provincial election is years away. Actually, IMO the separatists ran the province very well when they were in office. There were no corruption scandals. They were extremely friendly to immigrants, teaching them French far more earnestly and effectively than the Ontario conservatives taught immigrants English. Ontario does very little for immigrants, much less than they did many years ago. A friend of mine talked to some Quebec separatist economists and they were frank in saying that they needed to be part of a bigger trading area and they expected that if Quebec became independent that they would join the EU. In such a case I'd invest in Quebec quite heavily. But the scenario is unlikely.

To: energyplay who wrote (50948)	6/15/2004 9:11:36 PM
From: Taikun	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

You have a good point. Would Quebec be tempted to join the US? I don't think so. Right now it seems an emotional decision. The last time around they said they even wanted to keep the CDN$. Why go to the trouble of creating your own central bank? One thing is for sure, Quebec with its Napoleonic code-based law (as opposed to British-based civil law in the rest of Canada), wouldn't exactly fit in with the US civil-law based system. What would Quebec use as benchmarks for cultural heritage protection in the shadow of the US? I think Quebec would look at the US and see how Puerto Rico and Hawaii have fared and think again. Perhaps the economic reality would eventually kick in and they might align themselves with the US more. This could, incidentally, trigger thoughts by Puerto Rico, Hawaii and other parts of the US and Canada to seek independence. Once again, this would be largely an emotional issue, for these states/provinces derive huge benefits from the central infrastructure. In the US I think defense. Forget emotions, what would economics dictate? From a purely economic perspective, while the US does huge trade with the Quebec, wouldn't the US prefer East and West coast oil and gas and mineral resources? The Maritimes would be the best off economically if they could go independent and get better royalties off Hiberia (the royalties primarily accrue to Ottawa, Quebec probably gets at much from Hibernia as the Maritimes-but maybe as an independent country they could try the international courts, but look at East Timor). On a values basis, remember Canadians identify themselves best as 'not American' and Quebecers as 'not Canadian' so for Quebecers is that 'not American' squared? I guess they'll miss the billions Ottawa squandered last year protecting Quebec heritage. I wonder how they'll do in that area?