Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elmer Phud who wrote (123832)	6/16/2004 1:10:13 AM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Elmer, You're exactly right but it's impossible to know Intel's actual capacity so how can you run the numbers? They could have really bad yields but nobody's predicting a big jump in Intel P4 volume so there's no need to explain an increase. Hmm... is it because Intel yields are terrible and are likely to stay that way? Intel should be producing 20M CPUs (mix of Dothan / Prescott / Northwood) from each 300mm fab, and Intel is going from 1 to 4 IIRC. So Intel should be selling 80M CPUs per quarter, and pricing them to sell that many. (If your line of reasoning is to be applied to Intel). People here are predicting a jump in AMD CPU volume so it's reasonable to ask why they aren't shipping so many now. I think people are predicting increase in K8 volume, and at best modest increase of overall volume, from a little below 8M range to 9 - 10M range, well, at least I predict that. Why not just say the demand isn't very strong and leave it at that, except that doesn't explain where the new demand is going to come from. Demand for K7 seems to be going from poor to somewhat OK, (mainly due to better economy) but still way below potential supply. K8 demand has been improving recently to the point where AMD seems to be with low inventory, which is where the additional demand is coming from, and in a month or 2, this demnand will be met with the new 90nm supply. Joe

To: Elmer Phud who wrote (123832)	6/16/2004 1:26:21 AM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Re: You're exactly right but it's impossible to know Intel's actual capacity so how can you run the numbers? Here's what we do know: Intel is having to sell its new 31-stage pipeline chips, made in its new and newly upgraded (for $5 Billion) FABs, as 2.4ghz, $120 parts. Thats what we do know. Yields clearly are awful for Intel and binsplits worse. Whether it's because they designed a part they couldn't manufacture, or because their process has failed, doesn't much matter. Intel can't produce its current chip designs and would have been far better off spending $4 Billion less on FAB upgrades and just making more Northwoods until they figured out how to make something else as good or better - which clearly hasn't happened yet.