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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Knighty Tin who wrote (15701)6/22/2004 10:44:40 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
But, if he gets aggressive, pardon me while I laugh, they could get crushed.

OTOH, and CI had a good piece about this recently, while they may not get crushed from a solvency perspective, the large free profits provided by the spread-carry-trade arb opportunity could quickly disappear, and this in an environment where effective financial profits are like 35-40% of total corporate profits (CI ballpark, when you add in the GMACs and the GE Capitals along with all the official financial profits).

so we could see a serious decline in US profits as a result of a yield curve flattening. good thing the stock market doesn't care about profits -g-



To: Knighty Tin who wrote (15701)6/22/2004 10:49:40 AM
From: ild  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 110194
 
KT, what's up with trading volume? Indices have no movements. Have you observed that kind of lull before?

EDIT. I got it. Boyz have sold volatility, so now they need it to stay low. When they make their money they will start rocking the boat again. -g-



To: Knighty Tin who wrote (15701)6/22/2004 11:32:03 AM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
The heyday of the low risk carry trade is ending, with the 2/10 spread down to 195 bps, was 222, a month ago, and 240 in March. bondtalk.com

But, the whole moral hazard thing is so pervasive that they just switch gears and add risk (and a lot of it). Therefore think this spread might now be worth tuning into? Will signal credit stress, as much as higher rate stress, a double whammie.
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