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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (26262)	6/29/2004 12:27:02 PM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 60323

I don't see any data that would indicate a glut of chips. Just the opposite seems to be true. Too many new applications are eating up whatever surplus might have existed a couple of months ago. What data are you looking at? If this was the case, I would expect NAND prices to be rising....which I have yet to see any signs of. The worst part is that most of the new supply is supposed to be coming in the second half of this year....which is why the price cut by Sandisk was considered to be a quarter earlier than actually needed. Slacker

To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (26262)	6/29/2004 12:30:01 PM
From: Pam	Respond to of 60323

Art, The glut hasn't happened but there is a risk of it waiting to happen. The spot prices for some of the high-end (2Gb and 512Mb) NAND chips have come down over 20% in the last 3-4 weeks alone! Remember, the stock gets priced based on future prospects not the present. Also, remember when Sandisk starts manufacturing that 4Gbit 90nm chips they have skipped a generation in-between. Normally they have been behind Samsung which is a process leader. The fact that Sandisk's and Samsung's have moved from 130nm to 90nm itself gives them a lot more output than the market is ready to absorb, I think. Again, we are talking about a timing problem of maybe a quarter or two. Eventually we will find the consumption of these chips. The camera phones and shoot & store will pull the average down but jump drives pull it up and so will the cards for 6-10MP cameras. So that should be a wash. -Pam