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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (8616)	7/2/2004 10:37:01 AM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

tip, No fair comparing anyone to Thomas Jefferson. JFK once called the leading academics in America to a meeting in The White House. At dinner, he made the comment, "this is the most extraordinary collection of talent, of human knowledge, that has ever been gathered at The White House, with the possible exception of when Thomas Jefferson dined here alone."

To: yard_man who wrote (8616)	7/2/2004 11:36:43 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Thoughts from Heinz Date: Fri Jul 02 2004 10:39 trotsky (@'recovery') ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved this should be no surprise. the only surprise is why it took so long to get decisively weaker data such as the recent plunge in retail sales and today's pay-rolls inventions. in all likelihood this is the BEGINNING of the consumer recession, and if this assumption should prove correct, it will be much much worse than the business recession that preceded it. note btw. that the alleged leg up that both the US and Japan have had vs. the ROW so far in the 'reflationary recovery' is by and large a direct result of data distortion via hedonic indexing ( US and Japan are the only industrialized nations using this trick extensively ) . the same goes for the US jobs data, which have to be counted among the most useless and unreliable statistics anyone publishes anywhere on the planet. at best they can indicate a trend - they sure don't tell you what the actual state of affairs w.r.t. employment is. remember the wager i offered last evening? i said 'at most, we're going to see one more hike.' it is even possible that there will be no more rate hikes, and instead the next thing is the road to the 'zero boundary' where currently the BoJ is the lonely inhabitant. the idea is that Japan's inflation and economic data looked very similar on occasion of their first post bubble rate hike. they had to take that hike back pronto, as it caused the real estate bubble edifice to get crushed. i must add that this predictable CB reaction is of course exactly the WRONG thing to do. instead, interest rates and the economy should be left to their own devices, to enable a clearing out of the malinvestments accumulated during the boom. what the Greenspan Fed and the BoJ have been, and are doing, is to add even more incentive for resource misallocation with their policies. that's also why this cycle will be such a grueling grinder of multiple recessions...although there's always a remote possibility of a cleansing via a systemic crash. Date: Fri Jul 02 2004 10:18 trotsky (pm stocks) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved very unconvincing. doesn't look like this rally will hold at this stage. so probably all those outstanding call options at 400 + strikes will keep holding things in check. note also, when the stock market falls on a WEAK unemployment number, then it is back to fearing recession and deflation as opposed to rate hikes and inflation. good for the government debt markets, mixed blessings for gold, bad for everything else.