Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (8821)	7/7/2004 2:20:23 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Heinz on gold and the great reflation Date: Wed Jul 07 2004 11:48 trotsky (Goldcorp and CIBC) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved as i remarked at the time, once again a CIBC downgrade of GG ( they downgraded it from 'sell it first thing in the morning' to 'not even breathing is more important than selling GG RIGHT NOW' ) marked almost the exact price low in the stock. CIBC downgrades of GG are one of the most consistently accurate timing indicators for the gold sector in general, and more specifically GG. their gold analyst deserves the 'timer of the year' award. Date: Wed Jul 07 2004 11:37 trotsky (gold contract) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved some buy stops were hit just above 400 - possibly stops that have to do with delta hedging of calls that have been sold short at the 400 strike. the many calls that are open at strikes ranging from 400 to 430 represent resistance to price advances on the one hand, but otoh, whenever prices DO go through one of those strikes, dynamic hedging of the naked portion of the open calls gives the market an additional boost. an excellent example opf this phenomenon was the qu.4 1999 run in the internut stocks - the huge amount of calls open in stocks such as YHOO, CMGI, NSOL, etc. at the time helped to propel them into 'biggest financial bubble of all time' territory. in this context it's noteworthy that some of the major i-nut stocks have recently rached 50% retracements of their declines from the bubble peak, while one, EBAY, has actually reached a new bubble peak almost 100% over its previous one. could something similar happen in gold? ( i.e. a rally egged on by dynamic hedging ) . yes, it could. BUT - one has to be careful with such rallies. since they are based on a technicality so to speak, they tend to swiftly collapse once the hedging activity abates. Date: Wed Jul 07 2004 10:42 trotsky (US economy) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved after looking at some of the detailed data break-downs from commerce i was astounded to find out how WEAK the economy has already become...in fact it seems that the peak in economic activity occurred 3 quarters ago, probably coincident with the refi bubble peak. it becomes more doubtful by the day that this is a 'new tightening cycle'. more likely the anticipated concsumer recession is already beginning ( see latest auto and retail sales for confirmation ) , and as far as manufacturing is concerned, it continues to suck wind. also astonishing that corporate earnings ( all of US, including firms not publicly listed ) are STILL 20% below their 1997 peak. recovery? the 'great reflation experiment' seems to be close to failure - which isn't really a surprise, since the printing of money can not possibly create wealth. of course mainstream economists remain remarkably sanguine - although the absurd statistical methodologies employed by BLS have recently gotten some press, the data are still widely accepted as reflective of reality. i'm looking forward to the excuses...

To: yard_man who wrote (8821)	7/7/2004 2:26:34 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116555

Terrorcell on the FOOL on outsourcing =========================================================== I continue to be amazed at the volume of editorials in Engineering Trade Magazines against outsourcing. It seems like a few months ago the editorials were all pro-outsourcing. Anyway, it seems like the Engineering community and the Authors/Editors of magazines that serve the industry, have realized what is happening and how it will impact them. Small businesses and businesses without a sales force in Asia realize that they are losing new designs. Editors are realizing they are losing their reader base. Engineers (authors) are advising students to AVOID Engineering Degrees. Plus they are publishing and editorializing the fact that the sky is really falling. This is a big change in mindset. A big loss of confidence.