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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (51482)	7/9/2004 2:19:43 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

Jay and everyone - I get the strong feeling that the macro trends GUDD / GDDU and big sector bets (miners, natural gas, short semis, long China, short Japan, long Japan, etc.) will be MUCH weaker for the comming few years ( with one or two exceptions that may come out of the blue). The days of "go buy 5 gold stocks" or buy the X-country closed end fund or ETF may have gone away for a while. Like a damped oscillation or in TA terms a wedge, the swings are getting smaller. Look at Euro / USD. Starts at $1.22 , goes down to about $0.73, then up to $1.28 or so...now it will stay between $1.20 and about $1.05. How much can we make off of that change without leverage ? If we take on enough leverage to get a high return, look at the risk and expenses. So we will have to either - 1)look more to subsectors or specific stocks like Vermillion with Euro denominated energy income. 2) Or accept lower returns or higher risk. One possible way to finesse this would be to BUY stock picking expertise in the form of mutual or closed end funds. Compare two Japan funds, MJFOX - Matthews Japan Fund, and FJSCX Fidelity Smaller Company Japan VS. the EWJ Japan ETF (fixed basket of stocks) or Nikkei 225. In this moderate bull market, the fund advisors are more than earning their fees.