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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tradelite who wrote (22041)	7/9/2004 2:19:26 PM
From: zebra4o1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Tradelite, Yes, I am betting some of my hard earned cash on a housing crash. But I'm trying to keep it below 10% of my 'porfolio'. I try not to get carried away. I see this more as a hedge than an investment. My income from consulting is pretty sensitive to the economy. If we have a deep housing-bust-induced recession, I will be screwed. I have life insurance, so why not have housing-crash insurance too? I believe there is a fairly good chance (30%?) of at least a moderate crash. But the timing is the difficult thing. I am mostly playing with 2007 LEAP puts (far out of the money). But I do have a tiny kamikaze short on CFC right now. The plan is to role over the puts each time a new year becomes available. So far my 2006 puts are down a whopping 50%. My nightmare scenario is that the market roles over so slowly I cannot catch it, even with LEAPs. Also, I see housing prices as more interest rate driven. I think baby boomer demographics is a smaller factor. Anyway, that is my gut feel - no numbers or analysis to back it up.

To: Tradelite who wrote (22041)	7/9/2004 11:10:53 PM
From: bentway	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 306849

I always thought the boomers were like a pig passing through a python - when they're gone, they'll be more housing than people. Compared to previous generations, the boomers aren't very fecund. A lot of none, one or two kid families, and a lot of singles. This is what the SS doomsters are saying. But that doesn't factor in immigration, which might take up the slack. Does anyone have a good read on US population projections?