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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dayuhan who wrote (53650)	7/10/2004 3:48:25 AM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 793931

The problem in Iran at this point in time, though, which is what we were discussing, is a bit simpler. If we are 100% sure that we know where all of the nuclear materials and facilities are, a military option exists. If we are not sure, the military option does not exist. I think if the choice is between Iran with Nukes, and going to war with Iran, we go to war. For sure, Israel would be wiped out. And we would then face a Nuke situation with them. I don't know if we have the will to do it. I know for sure Kerry, et al, won't. They will kick the can down the road.

To: Dayuhan who wrote (53650)	7/10/2004 9:42:56 AM
From: Mary Cluney	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793931

<<< Money doesn?t guarantee quality, especially in that world. We can spend tens of millions of dollars and get less for it than the Iranians got from having the right agent in the right place.>>> We spend tens of Billions on intel. The problem is people will want to spend tens of billion more and will take five more years to get it right - so they say. By then, the five year plan will be out of date and a whole new round of blame will be ready to go. There is nothing wrong with our intel. They collect as much information as possible. It's like a huge database. Everything is in there - the raw data. How you choose to use the data is in question. <<< We favor sources that tell us what we want to hear, and exaggerate the information that is consistent with our prejudices and our preferred courses of action. Inconvenient information is dismissed. Doesn?t take a shrink to figure that one out.>>> That is very consistent with what I am trying to say. <<<The problem in Iran at this point in time, though, which is what we were discussing, is a bit simpler. If we are 100% sure that we know where all of the nuclear materials and facilities are, a military option exists. If we are not sure, the military option does not exist. Whether or not that option, assuming that it exists, should be taken, or whether it should be taken unilaterally or otherwise, are different questions. I agree that the problem in Iran is simpler, but I totally disagree with your solution. If we know where the nuclear materials and facilities are, there is absolutely no reason to take unilateral military action. We may not win any popularity contests at the UN or UNSC, but the UN and UNSC are not crazy wackos. We will force the UN and UNSC to take action. There is no other outcome. That is an easy scenario. If we are not sure of their nuclear capabilities, then the situation becomes more difficult. But the outcome will be the same. Iran will not be allowed to have a nuclear weapons capability. It will be entirely up to the Iranian leadership as to how they want to end this situation. <<<at this point it will probably have to happen unilaterally or not all. Not too many people will want to cooperate with us at this point. Crying wolf has its drawbacks, especially if you swagger about like a self-parodying jackass while doing it. The way we present our opinions and the manner in which we frame our plans is as important as the content of those opinions and those plans. Swagger plays well to the domestic market, but in the long run we lose more than we gain. >>> Just because we have made mistakes, does not mean we can't correct them. If we find ouselves in hole, we should stop digging. It is now, when we are the world's only super power that we have the opportunity to encourage (for the use of stronger language) the ROW of the world to stop with the nonsense and to do things right. We can not go it alone. Especially now, when we can go it alone.