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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dayuhan who wrote (53653)	7/10/2004 9:39:55 AM
From: unclewest	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793884

If you actually read my prewar posts (I have), you will find two major predictions. The first - which many here dismissed as blatant negativity at the time - was that Americans would be targeted by extensive terrorist attacks and intifadeh-style violence. I did not, ever, say that US forces would be defeated by such violence, but that the attacks would cost a lot of lives, provide a major drag on reconstruction efforts, and adversely affect the political will to undertake future operations that might be far more necessary than the Iraq war was. As I recall, the discussion, at least the ones I participated in, were that subversives from other ME countries would likely get involved at some point. I recall most of us agreed it was likely. I said then that this war was far more likely to expand than to end with the fall of saddam. I still believe that. This war has not been won and we know it. saddam is out but we are increasing boots on the ground in the ME instead of bringing them home. We are reactivating recently released reservists and Guardsmen, we are pulling troops from Europe and Korea and we are recalling recently discharged and retired soldiers. All of these folks are headed for deployment to the ME. But they are not going because Iraq needs more security imo. They are going because foreign disruption of Iraq's fight for freedom remains and Iraq and Syria show no sign of halting their support of worldwide terrorism. The second prediction was that it would be a lot harder to produce a functioning democratic government in Iraq than most people her thought. I still stand by that,m though of course it's way too early to tell. I am not sure I agree with the most people thought part. I don't think any of us expected it to be easy. I don't believe GWB thought he was taking the easy way out. Conversely, I do believe Clinton thought and still thinks now (albeit regretfully) that he took the easy way out. I can't think of a single historical example of Democracy being easily established. I cannot believe any of us thought it would come easy in Iraq. The discussions that I participated in here were never about the going being easy. Steven, in your time-line, there is one key intermediate step that you missed regarding the developing Iraqi Democracy. The Iraqis now smell freedom and want it badly. They have lost their fear of the old regime members and they are willing to fight for themselves and their fledgling democracy. It is beginning to look a bit like the American War of Independence...Nobody gave up the fight then and when the going got tougher more men volunteered. Some like Francis Marion, The Swamp Fox, formed and led small bands to hammer the imported enemy soldiers in their backyard. The attacks and slaughters of Iraqi police and security personnel have resulted in even more Iraqi men volunteering for such training and duty. They are not running...They are determined to fight for their own freedom now. Little locally led, homegrown militia groups are assisting the security forces by dispensing doses of street justice on foreign fighters and domestic insurgents in the war zones. We are providing technical assistance and fighting power as needed. The insurgents doing the beheadings and other acts of atrocity made one real bad miscalculation. They brought a knife to a gunfight. They are terrorists and must be killed and they are being killed. I don't share your misgivings nor your pessimism and never have. As long as most Iraqis are willing to fight for their own freedom, and they are, Iraq will be OK. Much (but not all) of the rest of the ME and Africa is a different story. That is where the expansion will come. uw