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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GVTucker who wrote (178544)	7/12/2004 1:20:35 PM
From: The Duke of URL©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

GV, you are of course, correct, that any aspersions to the guy's mental acumen are not polite. BUT, I was speaking of his general prognostications on the movement of intel stock. Which my memory serves me to remember that he is very short term, and not necessarily correct, in his analysis. If you have some specifics, I would be genuinely interested. It would flesh out his recent proclamation.

To: GVTucker who wrote (178544)	7/12/2004 5:26:22 PM
From: Saturn V	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Merill Downgrade Seems kind of silly to forecast overcapacity and shrinking margins on the eve of Intel's earnings and guidance. Apparently the analyst is making the familiar refrain that since the chipmakers are adding capacity there is bound to be overcapacity a year later, and thus leading to shrinking margins I ve heard that time and time again in the chip business. Sometimes the call is right but more frequently it is incorrect. The crucial variable is end user chip demand and that is such a strong function of new markets and elasticity of demand. The PC and Corporate MIS business has been down for a long time, and the replacement cycle is just begining. So it is hard to see stagnant demand there. The cell phone busines is strong and continues strong, driven by newer phone technologies, and increasing world wide penetration rates. The communication infrastructure has been dead since 2000, and sometime that will finally take off. So overall I see more of a surprise on the upside in the next eighteen months. The Merril analyst is being pessimistic, but there is nothing new in his analysis.