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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: qveauriche who wrote (134726)	7/15/2004 1:02:16 PM
From: Jon Koplik	Respond to of 152472

Re : (analysts') basis for the current slow-growth hypothesis ? -- Because they are <font size=80> DOUCHE BAGS

To: qveauriche who wrote (134726)	7/15/2004 1:07:44 PM
From: Cooters	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

QV, In addition to Jon's point.......... I've seen two 2005 forecasts in enough detail to see where they are coming up with the weakness. Smith Barney is only modeling 35M WCDMA handsets in CY05, well below QCOM's conservative forecast and half of mine. So they are just plain bearish on WCDMA. Morgan Stanley actually has a decline in earnings for 2005, based on flat QTL revenue and declining QCT revs. They explain QCT is because of a sharp dropoff in CSM's, I really don't know what kind of ASP decline you would need to see to make QTL flat with QCOM's forecast for overall volume growth, but it would be substantial. Back to Jon's point, basically.

To: qveauriche who wrote (134726)	7/15/2004 2:48:52 PM
From: rharshman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Excellent analysis. One of the problems, I fear, is that analysts do not have the stomach for projecting more than the company guidance provides. Remember what initial company guidance was for fiscal 2004? IMHO A repeat performance can be expected in fiscal 2005 from management, analysts and then actual earnings performance. You are dead right that the current multiple cannot be justified by current projections (or anticipated guidance.) So most of the buyers must have their own projections. I stuck my neck out earlier today with a 2005 EPS estimate. What is yours?