The "October surprise?"
atimes.com
South Asia
Stage set for final showdown
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - A recent report by US think-tank Strategic Forecasting suggested that since "sovereignty" had now been transferred to Iraq, the United States would give its full attention to the problem of al-Qaeda fugitives in Pakistan's rugged tribal areas. Already this year, at the instigation of Washington, the Pakistani army has launched two military offensives into South Waziristan to track down foreign elements, with marginal success.
All signs now point to another offensive, but this time Islamabad and Washington have agreed that US troops stationed across the border in Afghanistan will take an active part in the action on Pakistani soil, rather than wait for suspects to be flushed out into their waiting arms. Similarly, Pakistani troops will be able to engage in hot-pursuit operations into Afghan territory.
In its single most important strike yet in the tribal areas, the Pakistani army in mid-June killed former Taliban commander Nek Mohammed, a key facilitator for al-Qaeda, the Taliban and the Afghan resistance in the tribal areas. The United States, however, played a vital role in this operation by tracking down Nek through his mobile-telephone calls, and there is even some suggestion that the US in fact launched the missiles that killed Nek and a few others in a house near Wana, the provincial capital of South Waziristan.
Given the complexities of fighting in the inhospitable tribal territories, where conventional forces face huge natural obstacles, the involvement of high-tech US forces is critical.
It is just such cooperation that is believed to have topped the agenda when General John Abizaid, head of the US Central Command, visited Pakistan recently, in addition to Pakistan sending troops to Iraq.
Shortly after Abizaid's departure, Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf announced that foreign terrorists had a base camp in South Waziristan, and that the military would "use power to smoke them out" in as many operations as were needed to achieve this goal.
With a little help from friends, of course.
According to contacts in Pakistan's strategic circles who spoke to Asia Times Online, over the past few months the US has been engaged in espionage operations, including the use of spy planes, in South and North Waziristan, Chitral, the Hindu Kush mountain chain, Zhob, and the mountainous belt between Kandahar in Afghanistan and Pakistani Balochistan. Tracking devices have also been installed in a number of places to monitor movements in the border areas.
US intelligence is concerned that in the previous Pakistani army incursions into South Waziristan, their targets were forewarned, and simply relocated to the mountains of Balochistan. Now a strategy has been worked out in which operations will cover the whole 2,240 kilometers of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border.
Militant revival
After two operations and exhaustive scouting in South Waziristan, the region's network of underground bunkers and tunnels has been exposed. As a result, the estimated 600 foreign fighters who were holed up there have moved to other regions and provinces.
One of these areas, Jani Khail, is full of Taliban and al-Qaeda sympathizers, and Osama bin Laden is said to have spent some time there after fleeing from Afghanistan, along with hundreds of Arab families, in 2002.
The Eidak tribes in North Waziristan are also known for their commitment to jihad against foreigners. According to one estimate, 85% of Eidak youths are engaged either in Wana, Afghanistan or the Iraqi fronts. Jamia Eidak (Islamic school) is the catalyst for this movement. Recently, a few attacks have been made on Pakistani troops in the Eidak area, and several security personnel have been killed.
Darpakhail was the center of the Afghan resistance against the Soviets in the 1980s, and has retained its commitment for the cause of jihad against the United States. Siraj Haqqani, the son of Jalaluddin Haqqani, a former Taliban minister and commander who acts as a go-between for al-Qaeda and the Taliban on both sides of the border, regularly ferries fresh jihadis in a fleet of brand-new jeeps to Khost, Paktia and Paktika in Afghanistan.
After the arrest of Jalaluddin Haqqani's nephew, Ishaq Haqqani, by Pakistani authorities, Siraj Haqqani (see Through the eyes of the Taliban, May 5) now orchestrates all jihadi activities. The Manbaul Ulom seminary in North Waziristan, which the authorities had shut down, is once again a center of jihadi activities, and where top Taliban and al-Qaeda commanders meet.
Already, the Taliban have stepped up operations in Afghanistan, especially in the provinces of Urzgan, Kandahar, Khost, Zabul, Paktia and Paktika, and the scattered movement of the past has managed to re-establish a chain of command in the hands of Jalaluddin Haqqani.
Given these developments, it is only a matter of time before Pakistani and US forces swing into action.
(Additional reporting by Muqadar Iqbal in Rawalpindi.)
TOMORROW: Lessons from Waziristan
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