To: Maurice Winn who wrote (51692 ) 7/21/2004 8:59:59 AM From: TobagoJack Respond to of 74559 Hello Maurice, I do not believe you have the proper understanding and the correct feel for the situation. I remind you of the Script, written not so long ago, near the start of the Process of Collapse,Message 15001642 <<December 12th, 2000 I am fairly neutral on the subject of China-Taiwan, as I am happy to see both strong and prosperous. I do not believe China will invade Taiwan anytime soon (10-15 years?) . I do agree that, should China invade, it will be at a time of Taiwan weakness. Defending Taiwan is nonsensical, as it simply lacks strategic depth. Taiwan once tried to distance itself from China during the time of early Ching dynasty. Diplomacy failed after about nine attempts over many years. Eventually one invasion was launched and failed due to weather. Then another succeeded, launched during a time of maximum internal confusion, disunity, and some local cooperation . China is improving its military capabilities, not so much for the invasion of Taiwan, but as a part of its overall development. When the time is right, and victory can be assured, a phone call will be made from Beijing to Taipei, and the message will be a simple one. Of course, some more gentle approaches can be tried in the interim ... allowing 28 million Henan peasants to set sail as refugees from Xiamen will probably work pretty well, or print up a trillion counterfeit Taiwan dollars, or simply announcing a dead line for unification as in the case of Hong Kong. In such a scenario, the locals will stop investing locally, and all will simply ground to a halt. But Taiwan knows all this, and is simply trying to play for time and a better bargaining position. In poker or chess, Taiwan holds a weak hand and a messy position>> To highlight a truth, with the recent Taiwan election going the way it did, I would say the disunity has been sufficiently exposed for all to see, for some to plan around, and others to count on. ... and so, in case you relapse into fuzzy thinking and faulty observation, now we are here Message 20330369 ... the Script will gently meander towards the year 2020, 28 million peasants from Henan Province, and a trillion fake NTDollars, along with the regular portion of the Financial Collapse sequence. Maurice, have you not noticed something useful, like hanging out on BBR enables you to read the newspapers a whole lot of months ahead of the CNN/CNBC-watching crowd ? Chugs, Jay