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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wade who wrote (51739)	7/23/2004 12:00:27 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello Wade, <<Looks like you know a lot about Mao and very little about Taiwan>> ... actually I know as little about the former as I do the latter, and so I am not confused. <<Are you sure that you are neutral?>> ... I get asked that question a lot, by all kinds of folks. Oh, yes, very neutral, practically so, just pragmatically observing reality as I see it, commenting on same, and making appropriate arrangements, preparing hedges, just in case I am right. I call it "thinking for myself". I meet quite a few folks from Taiwan, and attended parties with all persuasions, noting the differences, marking the nuances, and reaching interim conclusions. The reality is simple, as I see it. Maybe I am wrong. Perhaps I am right. Taiwan cannot sail away, is out numbered, out-gunned, and Taiwan wealth is gushing out, even as at home unemployment is rising, and so I must conclude time is not on Taiwan independence's side. Putting all of the above into an Excel spreadsheet leads to one natural and apparent conclusion. I also observe that the mainland is changing, and whatever the course, seems to be strengthening the mainland regime. Adding this fact to the above equation strengthens the apparent and natural conclusion. I, trusting my own observations and calculations, feel Gordon Chang's 'Mainland regime will collapse in a heap very soon' is probably off base, and ultimately prove ulcer-causing. Gordon is simply too strident for his own health. I further get the feel that folks on both sides and all sides feel strongly, and so a showdown is only a question of time. Now, from my observations of folks on both sides of the strait, I suspect there are many folks on the mainland capable and willing to do what may be necessary to have Taiwan obey, but OTOH, I do not sense that there are folks in Taiwan in quantity and within organizations that matter who would be a match to the hungry and wild mainland technocrats I referred to. The folks in Taiwan appear to be soggy wet noodles, and not very good ones at that. Notice how I compliment both sides. I could have just as well used words dynamic for one side or educated for the other. I, unlike many, do not wish for one thing or hope for another, for I do not feel I have the luxury of doing so. I observe, and calculate, and then allocate. Thinking of me with other motives would be a mistake. Tweaking folks on either side of the equation is fun, but tweaking the side that is more strident is more fun, and the side that is more deliberated is less fun. To net brian h and chime his bells is the most fun. brian h is hoping that Taiwan will stay as is or go independent, and the mainland will collapse in a heap. I fear that he will get an ulcer as we go forward. Now, what you may hope for is simply not likely to be, because history is hardly ever on the minority side of a conflict, sadly, but generally so. And for outsiders to a conflict, the minority generally ends up as trading chip, also sadly so. Have I expressed an opinion that is not at least plausible on the subject of Taiwan? Which part are you specifically disagreeing with? What is your reason? Chugs, Jay