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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gamesmistress who wrote (55870)	7/23/2004 4:24:54 PM
From: Andrew N. Cothran	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793839

Rasmussen's latest polling as of July 23rd, 2003 @ www.rasmussenreports.com Rasmussen's latest Electoral College poll (results as of July 15th) are very interesting indeed. When carefully studied, one finds that: Bush increases his total from 197 to 208, a significant increase. This illustrates the point that I have been making. The trend is the thing and the trend is in favor of Bush. Furthermore, it is interesting to make a few projections based on Rasmussen's latest state by state statisticsl For instance, if one takes those states still rated a toss up but where the percentages favor Bush, you come up with the following: Va 13 electoral votes Latest poll Bush 52 Kerry 44 Ohio 20 electoral votes Latest poll Bush 50 Kerry 46 NH 4 electoral votes Latest poll Bush 48 Kerry 47 Mo 11 electoral votes Latest poll Bush 50 Kerry 47 AK 6 electoral votes Latest poll Bush 51 Kerry 46 Total 54 added to Bush's 208 equals 262. Needed to win 269. Conclusion: if the Electoral College vote was tabulated today based on Rasmussen's latest figures, then Bush would have 262 electoral votes, only seven shy of the necessary 269. Add Florida with its 27 votes to the Bush totals and you get 289 electoral votes, more than enough to give the election to Bush. Of course, I recognize that Florida stats are 48% Bush and 48% Kerry. In other words, Florida is a dead heat at the moment. So all Bush has to do is to redouble his efforts in Florida, maintain his current lead in the other toss up states, and he is back in the White House for four more years. The Electoral College final tally is the only important talley. The popular vote is interesting but does not determine victory as Gore found out the hard way.