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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: quehubo who wrote (56064)	7/26/2004 5:41:50 AM
From: Dayuhan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793622

Do you really think we will be withdrawing or even significantly reducing our presence? We will have to. Can't afford to keep them there forever. Besides, if an elected Iraqi government – very likely with covert connections to Iran – demands that we pull our people out, we won’t have much choice. That, I expect, is the immediate Iranian goal. They may very well achieve it. We have certainly played into their interests so far. Iran, Iraq and SA have one thing in common, economic and political systems that fail to meet the minimum needs of the vast majority of their populations…Their governments cannot survive without our support. Are you suggesting that the Iranian government requires our support to survive? An odd contention… how exactly are we supporting them, except by giving them an external threat to wave before their people? I’m not even sure you could say that the Saudi government needs our support to survive. In terms of their relations with their population, our support seems as much liability as asset. The Iraqi government does need our support, but that’s a somewhat unusual circumstance. I expect the results of a significant oil interruption to compel people of many nations to support whatever action required to stabilize oil flow from the region. People of many nations are most likely to sit back and let the US do it for them. The most probable source of an oil shock would be a Saudi collapse, and the most probable solution would be a move to carve off the Shiite provinces – where the oil is – and set them up as an independent entity. Nobody wants to see American troops in Mecca. This, in the long run, is exactly what the Iranians would like to see: 3 Shiite-controlled nations controlling the world’s oil supply.