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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Paul Senior who wrote (51905)7/29/2004 11:25:12 PM
From: AC Flyer  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
>>On what do you base your opinion?<<

Paul, I doubt that I will persuade you as you likely are not a Bush fan. Nevertheless, here's my candid assessment:

1) Kerry is not a strong Presidential candidate. The Republican media machine will take him apart in the run-up to the election.
2) There have been no further terrorist attacks in the US since 9/11. Major positive for Bush.
3) The timing of the economy recovery is a plus for Bush. Job growth and consumer confidence are rising and will provide support for Bush in November.
4) Most importantly, if the Clintons thought Bush was beatable in 2004, Hillary would be running for President. She is not. She wants to run against a Republican in 2008 and so the Clintons will use their political influence to subtly undermine Kerry, just as they did with Gore in 2000. That's the clincher.



To: Paul Senior who wrote (51905)8/2/2004 2:13:39 AM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum  Respond to of 74559
 
Wow we even have the 50% gains guys here ;o) welcome Paul.

Sadly I think there is as little of a contest in your election as there was up here in Canada recently.



To: Paul Senior who wrote (51905)11/3/2004 11:02:30 AM
From: AC Flyer  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 74559
 
>>"almost certainly be re-elected". Really? that close to certainty? On what do you base your opinion?<<

Though this will get little attention in the media, a key reason is that the US is, on average, getting older. Older people, on average, are more conservative than younger people. It's the power of the boomers again. Demographics is destiny.