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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Thomas A Watson who wrote (597837)7/30/2004 7:52:21 PM
From: Enam Luf  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 769670
 
>>Yes by actual population the area the was behind PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH had 43 million more people.

before i disagree with you, what exactly was meant by "the area behind" - are u backing into population numbers from the electoral numbers? if so, i think that would be a pretty underhanded attempt to manipulate statistics.

this site calls the race much closer on straight votes:

infoplease.com

imho, the only chance u have of seeing the numbers you project is if a major terrorist catastrophe or world event upsets the current equilibrium prior to the election. people normally flock to the incumbent in uncertain times. even though conspiracy theories would abound if that occured in this case, i still believe the net effect would benefit bush.

EDIT: I think the toughest thing Bush will have to overcome this time around significantly higher voter turnout from bush-haters. i don't see an offsetting factor in bush's favor here.



To: Thomas A Watson who wrote (597837)7/30/2004 9:07:07 PM
From: Andrew N. Cothran  Respond to of 769670
 
Thomas: Let's start a contest now. All who want to post their predictions can come here and do what you just did.

Post their best prediction and date it. Give each of us the opportunity to change our predictions from week to week based on the evidence.

Then on the day after election, we can post the results.