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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (17558)	8/2/2004 11:41:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95657

Don, re >one of these days, the "market" is going to wake up to the fact, that this cycle still has legs.< But if bookings growth flattens or nearly so, what will market reaction be? We have no precedent for that [back to '95]. If it peaks and drops [as in past cycles, inverted V] how far is the peak away and will the market again anticipate the peak by several months? Gottfried

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (17558)	8/3/2004 12:29:10 AM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95657

Don, how sure are you that "they" cannot ultimately push stocks lower? Even on a fundamental basis a very good case can be made for technology stocks still being overvalued compared to any other period in history other than the bubble years. When earnings and stock prices are disconnected there is always a reason. Even when the market appears unreasonable it is always right. Short term rally up to around 450 on the SOX is all we should reasonably expect unless we get a lot of institutional buyers willing to hold stocks. RtS

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (17558)	8/3/2004 9:16:15 AM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 95657

HI Don, I for one am ready for Mr Greed to enter the market - post haste. Bob

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (17558)	8/3/2004 10:04:30 AM
From: BMcV	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95657

>>The entities that want the "short" cycle would like to see lower prices before they buy. Maybe when they find out they can't push the prices any lower, they will start to buy. If that happens we should be able to see that effect in the volume numbers.<< Since most institutional money managers are paid based on relative performance against various benchmarks, once the consensus spreads that the SOX has bottomed, they should pile in for the "seasonal trade" CSFB talks about. They can't afford to be out.