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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (11074)	8/3/2004 3:28:23 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

'Actual' global chip sales hit $20.7 billion in June Peter Clarke 08/03/2004 1:00 PM EST SAN JOSE, Calif. -- With the Asia-Pacific region approaching half the world's chip market in June (43.8 percent) the 'actual' worldwide sales were $20.70 billion, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA). This is nearly $3 billion ahead of the $17.82 billion three-month average announced by the SIA on Monday (August 2) and up 40.3 percent from the 'actual' sales in June 2003. This strong growth compared to 'actual' year-on-year sales growth in May 2004 of 39.1 percent and therefore indicates that not only was the market growing in June but that its rate of growth was still increasing. The SIA and other regional industry groups publicize sales statistics gathered by World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) as the three-month moving averages of monthly sales activity rather than the actual numbers. The SIA calculates averages to smooth out variations due to companies' sales reporting calendars, which often make March, June, September and December five-week months thereby inflating those month's numbers. Chip sales in the first half of 2004 were $102.16 billion up 36.2 percent on the $74.99 billion recorded in the first half of 2003. The Asia Pacific region's 'actual' sales figure of $8.79 billion in June was 58.4 percent ahead of sales of $5.55 billion in June 2003. In June 2004 Japan recorded $4.29 billion of sales, the Americas region $4.02 billion and Europe was responsible for $3.61 billion. Asia-Pacific region is more than double the size of any other geographic market and approached half the world market in June being responsible for 43.8 percent of all sales worldwide.

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (11074)	8/3/2004 7:13:48 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

RE: "Year-on-year equipment sales are expected to drop well below the 50 percent growth already witnessed, as semiconductor manufacturers rein in expenses and recognize that they overshot their needs." They got the growth rate right, "well below the 50 percent", but they blew the explanation because they don't even think right for a supposed "research" organization. The story: Once upon a time, semi manufacturers were purchasing equipment for new technology and fab capacity was not increasing very much. This was OK because fab utilization was low. Then demand picked up, utilization rose very quickly to much higher levels, and equipment orders increased "50 percent" because that level was needed to add capacity to meet added demand. Demand is expected to increase at low double digit rates, but sufficient capacity to meet this growth may be added by buying equipment at a low single digit growth rate. (Note: a real "research" organization would add the appropriate quantification to the story. I am looking forward to Q2 fab capacity growth and fab utilization statistics to compare to the recent semi and equip revenue (3 month moving average) numbers.)

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (11074)	8/4/2004 6:28:14 PM
From: etchmeister	Respond to of 25522

$3 billion ahead of the $17.82 billion three-month average announced by the SIA on Monday 1.) wouldn't that imply that (actual) chip sales in the past already pulled back a few months ago? 2.) based on the same data two completely opposite conclusions: "surprisingly weak semiconductor sales in June" versus "not only was the market growing in June but that its rate of growth was still increasing" and both blurbs come out on the same day! "Failure to cut back production despite surprisingly weak semiconductor sales in June led surplus inventories" in case this guy is looking at 3 month rolling average he is already BEHIND the curve as it appears that chip sales dipped already a few months ago This is nearly $3 billion ahead of the $17.82 billion three-month average announced by the SIA on Monday (August 2) and up 40.3 percent from the 'actual' sales in June 2003. This strong growth compared to 'actual' year-on-year sales growth in May 2004 of 39.1 percent and therefore indicates that not only was the market growing in June but that its rate of growth was still increasing. Supply, Demand Need to be Balanced for Growth to Continue Failure to cut back production despite surprisingly weak semiconductor sales in June led surplus inventories to swell and semiconductor manufacturers have grown increasingly cautious as they expand capacity, choosing to build out fabs in three or four phases rather than all at once, which should extend the growth of the equipment cycle into 2005, the firm said.