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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BMcV who wrote (17596)	8/4/2004 10:12:34 AM
From: BMcV	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95656

Yet the CSFB semiconductor analysts seem more positive: Semiconductor Devices Market Weight M.Masdea June SIA Results;Cycle Still Strong (415)836-7779 •Today we are launching a revamped analysis of the SIA data intended to better capture the relevant trends in the data. Comparisons with seasonality across our segmented data (products,end-markets,and geographies)should provide quicker and deeper insights into the data.Feedback,as always,is encouraged. •Cycle Still Strong.While valid concerns over a 2005 downturn loom,June SIA data released Saturday night (lagging indicator and largely known given 2Q04 results) showed accelerating,above-seasonal growth (+23.1%m/m vs.+14.8%m/m seasonal).During June,above seasonal units (+12.2%m/m vs.+8.7%m/m seasonal)and above seasonal pricing (+9.7% m/m vs.+5.5%m/m seasonal) both contributed. •Pricing Contributing This Cycle.After 7 years of secular weakness in pricing,tight utilization continues to drive ASP gains, with above seasonal increases in June.We expect a favorable pricing environment through as late as early 2005, given a historical lag relative to units. •Blowout 2Q04 -On Track for +28%in '04.Sequential growth in 2Q04 came in well above typical seasonal performance (+9.5%q/q vs.+1.5%seasonal).On a y/y basis,industry growth accelerated to a near-record level (+40.3%).Assuming only a seasonal 2H,the industry is on-track for roughly +28%y/y growth.We continue to forecast a mild '05 downturn (-2%y/y). •Highlights:Memory (DRAM,Flash)led the strength,followed by DSPs,logic and MCUs.MPUs and analog were the weakest, due in large part to supply-chain issues.See exhibit 1.

To: BMcV who wrote (17596)	8/4/2004 10:26:53 AM
From: BWAC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95656

So this juggler in the clown show says that ASML now trades at 20X 2004 earnings which is half way in the books and guided for another 1/4th of the way. Seems a fair valuation to me with little risk? Then the clown goes on to juggle that his estimates for 2005 impute a current 12.2 PE, yet if earnings come in at half that (as they think) it could become a 25PE? So what exactly are the estimates???? Which is it? Sounds like he is juggling with both hands and feet. Then some more juggling of 20X peak eps can't be supported, yet 25X trough can't either, but here we are today at 20PE?Niether at the top or bottom of the cycle. Unless of course, we are? But still yet, his estimates call for a 12.2 peak eps unless of course he is 100% wrong and his "other" estimates materialize? This is garbage analysis.

To: BMcV who wrote (17596)	8/4/2004 1:51:17 PM
From: etchmeister	Respond to of 95656

Although I don't have data on hand I believe majority of the purchases going forward is now focusing on 65 which means that capacity will not go online as fast as the most current capacity buys. If I recall correctly some of PC weakness was triggered in Asia a quarter ago or so; keep in mind that Intel was increasing also chipsets Taiwan chipset makers expect double-digit shipment growth in 3Q Printer friendly Related stories Comments Email to a friend Latest news Advertisement Emma Wang, Taipei; Steve Shen, DigiTimes.com [Monday 2 August 2004] VIA Technologies and Silicon Integrated Systems (SiS), Taiwan’s two major core logic chipset makers, expect to record double-digit sequential growth in third quarter chipset shipments amid a “healthy” level of non-Intel chipsets inventories at Taiwan motherboard makers, according to sources at the two makers. VIA expects its chipset shipments to grow 15-18% sequentially in the third quarter, company sources said. Based on the projected shipment growth, VIA’s third-quarter revenues should hit NT$5 billion, up 11.4% from NT$4.49 billion in the second quarter, market sources predicted. SiS expects its third-quarter chipset shipments to increase 25% sequentially. The increased shipments should help the company total NT$2.7 billion in revenues for the third quarter, up from NT$2.19 billion in the second quarter, said company sources