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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (17606)	8/4/2004 12:06:54 PM
From: BMcV	Respond to of 95652

>>I guess we should be a little less sarcastic.<< Why?

To: The Ox who wrote (17606)	8/4/2004 12:15:36 PM
From: BWAC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95652

<What they don't admit to is that it could be off by a factor of 50% in the opposite direction. In other words, 2005 could be stronger then they expect but that wouldn't be acceptable.> They've found a way around that little 'perception' problem as well. Seems to me while they are fretting over the impending trough, they are also increasing next year EPS.

To: The Ox who wrote (17606)	8/4/2004 2:36:17 PM
From: etchmeister	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95652

Almost no one is willing to say anything that could be interpreted as the slightest bit bullish about the future. No. Down is the only possibility going forward. Either our estimates are ok or they are way too high. No way could we miss a possible upside looming on the horizon. Thank God for bookings versus IC sales chart; (it's always helpful to "calibrate" pundit's comments) the rootcause for downturn is excessive spending; if u - rates tumble from 100% to less than 50% within a quarter than this qualifies as a peak; however current predictions now call for the 100% range over the next two quarters which would mean that u-rates are hovering in the 100% +/- 5 to 10% for almost 9 months (at least in the case of TSMC); for sure that does NOT qualify as a peak