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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (17656)	8/5/2004 5:10:06 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95640

RtS, re >Schaeffers says that long term bottoms come when the bearish percentage is 55% or more.< I like Schaeffer. He also called for VIX >100 almost 2 years ago. I posted my thoughts on that then investorshub.com Gottfried

To: Return to Sender who wrote (17656)	8/5/2004 5:32:31 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95640

...nothing but downgrades. Complete and total utter despair...Simply put, there is no where near enough negativity...There is no where near enough fear or negativity...The real problem is not enough real objectively measurable negativity... Yes there is, except it's only in your posts...LOL...rofl... :)

To: Return to Sender who wrote (17656)	8/5/2004 7:46:07 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95640

RtS, I hear you - and I don't disagree about conditions needed for a "long term" bottom. We have just had 2 of them defined for us in Oct 98 and Oct 02. If the period remains the same, Oct 06, as you are sort of predicting, that would be a nice "cycle repeat" for the next long term bottom. However, that repeat period may not prove to be true. Right now the market "stinks". I read a lot about negative feelings every day. Maybe Investors Intelligence shows only 24.5 percent bears, but if so, they are doing a good job of bringing this market down, while the bulls are sitting on their hands. To show the negative feelings in the market, I submit the closing report from Briefing.com for today. <<Close Dow -163.48 at 9963.03, Nasdaq -33.43 at 1821.63, S&P -17.93 at 1080.70: [BRIEFING.COM] Rising oil prices and disappointing same-store sales for July from the retailers combined to undercut the stock market today as each, in its own way, contributed to concerns about the pace of earnings growth in coming quarters... Crude futures, in fact, hit a new record high of $44.50/bbl before closing the session at $44.41, up 3.7%... The spike in prices followed news reports that Russia's Justice Ministry said "nyet" with respect to Yukos being able to use previously frozen funds to pay for day-to-day operations... Recall that oil prices fell yesterday afternoon on a report that ministry bailiffs authorized Yukos to use frozen funds... That authorization was revoked, though, on the opinion that it was not based on legal norms... The striking flip-flop sparked a torrent of uncertainty regarding Yukos's fate and simply exacerbated already pressing supply concerns... The major indices slipped in the face of the oil price spike and showed virtually no inclination to forge a rebound effort due to a notable lack of industry leadership and the market's poor technical condition... To that end, the Nasdaq faltered early in the session, unable to climb back above a primary resistance point (i.e. 1865/1869 level) and kept right on falling through a couple of support zones (1845/1842 and 1832/1829) with selling activity accelerating into the close... The closing slide left the Nasdaq at a new closing low for the year and took the Dow below the psychological barrier of 10,000... Market internals reflected the broad-based selling interest as decliners swamped advancers; meanwhile, down volume outpaced up volume by nearly an 8-to-1 margin at the NYSE and Nasdaq... Retail, and specifically apparel, was the S&P's biggest weak spot with names like Gap (GPS 19.79, -1.59), TJX Cos. (TJX 21.49, -1.34), and Wal-Mart (WMT 52.05, -1.14) posting notable losses... There wasn't a single S&P industry group with a gain of more than 0.3% and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 20.50, +0.06) was the only Dow component that didn't trade lower for the day... The Treasury market got some help from the stock market's misfortune as the 10-yr note gained six ticks to lower its yield to 4.39%... The positive move was a bit counter-intuitive in light of the spike in oil prices, but inflation concerns were trumped by the view that higher oil prices will slow economic activity... Tomorrow the July employment report, and particularly the nonfarm payrolls number, will serve as the trading catalyst; today, nervousness ahead of the report contributed to the selling interest... The consensus estimate is for an increase of 243K positions; Briefing.com is forecasting a gain of 215K... In our estimation, anything over 175K should help alleviate concerns about the economic slowdown... NYSE Adv/Dec 886/2362... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 831/2242.>>