Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (17710)	8/6/2004 5:11:41 PM
From: Alastair McIntosh	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 95632

I think the danger of a recession is real. The weak rise in labour income does not bode well for increased consumer demand. Coupled with a low saving rate and high household debt, the consumer won't keep the economy afloat much longer. Industrial capacity utilization has risen a bit but is still too low to generate much new spending. Energy prices are a wild card. However, I think a lot of the crude oil price rise is fueled by speculation and prices will drop significantly in the near future. Maybe commodity price increases combined with flat or lower consumer demand mean that we will again face stagflation. I don't know what additional stimulus can be provided going into the election.