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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alastair McIntosh who wrote (17711)	8/6/2004 5:31:42 PM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95632

Wayne Angel former federal reserve member calls on Greenspan not to raise rates on tuesday. He says that contrary to cw, fed is not boxed in and there is noting in what he said last time that calls for an auto increase. Also said money supply not growing fast enough. Both kudlow and kramer ask bush to stop filling the reserve as well as releasing some oil to break the terror premium, price & momo on oil.

To: Alastair McIntosh who wrote (17711)	8/6/2004 5:35:04 PM
From: BelowTheCrowd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95632

All the stimulus to the consumer has been exhausted. Fiscal, monetary, etc. Stimulus to business is seemingly ineffective. Businesses are seeing no great money to spend the money they're earning, no matter how "free" it has become. A letter published on a subscription only site poses an interesting view. In essence, he suggests that the consumer recession that was delayed by easy credit and the housing boom is now coming due, and like the "business recession" that preceded it, we can expect it to last 12-18 months. He goes on to suggest that the economy won't be ready for a sustainable rebound until the consumer and corporate sectors are closer in sync again. (The last recession is the first one in modern history that did not have a consumer component.) Finally, he suggests that the markets will react rather unfavorably when they figure out what's up. I personally think markets are already discounting some of this scenario. And he does point to stagflation as a likely outcome. Not my own analysis, but I did find it interesting.

To: Alastair McIntosh who wrote (17711)	8/6/2004 5:46:14 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95632

As promised earlier to the thread, the following is a synopsis of the action for the 3 reporting periods of this year. This is an update to the table posted for the first 2 reporting periods this year. Both the Group and SOX are shown below. Each of the 3 reporting periods starts with the beginning of the earnings reporting season and ends 3 weeks later at the end of the reporting season. This gives us equal time periods to correlate the data. Let's take the Group first. The sum of the 2 year earnings estimates are up from 15.32 on 1/17, to 51.26 at today's close, a gain of 235 percent. At the same time, the Group price has declined from 640.69 to 361.06, a loss of 44 percent. The SOX has similar statistics. The sum of the 2 years earnings estimates goes from 23.09 to 41.97, a gain of 82 percent. At the same time, the SOX price has declined from 557.15 to 386.88, a loss of 31 percent. - FIRST CALL SUM EARN PRICE TOTAL - EARNINGS EST TWO PCT GROUP PCT PCT DATE CURR YR NEXT YR YEARS CHG PRICE CHG CHG 1/17/04 -2.91 18.23 15.32 640.69 2/7/04 4.47 24.37 28.84 88 570.81 -11 -11 4/16/04 9.75 29.59 39.34 494.58 -23 5/7/04 12.22 31.07 43.29 10 450.54 -9 -30 7/16/04 14.42 31.14 45.56 396.95 -38 8/6/04 20.12 31.14 51.26 13 361.06 -9 -44 - FIRST CALL SUM EARN PRICE TOTAL - EARNINGS EST TWO PCT SOX PCT PCT DATE CURR YR NEXT YR YEARS CHG PRICE CHG CHG 1/17/04 7.28 15.81 23.09 557.15 2/7/04 13.78 20.67 34.45 49 519.41 -7 -7 4/16/04 15.07 22.17 37.24 480.14 -14 5/7/04 16.86 23.78 40.64 9 457.01 -5 -18 7/16/04 17.07 23.22 40.29 410.46 -26 8/6/04 18.79 23.18 41.97 4 386.88 -6 -31