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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (10323)8/7/2004 10:31:13 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
Don Coxe on the theory of the Shared Mistake, Oil Prices and other things
[Mish note: I highly recommend reading the entire article, a long one.]

This is another example of Shared Mistake—the basic theme
of my book. When all the prominent people agree on some
important economic or financial forecast, and they are all
wrong, the consequences are enormous—and enormously
painful.


Mish comments....
The article uses oil as an example.
Virtually everone thought oil was headed back into the 20's and they were all wrong.

Now what is the universal agreement?
1) Interest rates are headed up next year
55 out of 55 economists polled all agreed
First unanimous vote ever
2) Treasury yields will rise
3) The US economy is strong

Another snip from the article:
XOM and its oil brethren are the biggest reason why the p/e multiple on the total S&P looks reassuringly modest these days. The high multiple on the rest of the market is no aphrodisiac to arouse hot-weather capitalist lusts.

Look at Exxon Mobil's Q2 earnings per share, up 42% this
year and 59% last year. However, the seers forecast a 22.7%
decline next year.

Imagine what would be happening to the
prices of tech stocks if the prices of their products were
climbing by 35%, rather than falling at double-digit rates.


[Question of the day from the article....mish]
II. Capital Spending Peak?
The temporary 50% boost in capital spending depreciation
allowances expires, by remarkable coincidence, 59 days after
the election.Will capex remain robust when Washington isn't
picking up so much of the tab?


Coxe comments on GM supply of SUVs
To the extent they have had profitable private passenger
vehicle operations in North America in recent years, they have been confined to SUVs, the vehicles with the most to lose from $40 oil. When last heard, there were somewhere north of 110 days' supply of those thirsty gas-guzzlers on hand. Meanwhile, Toyota's Prius, which sips gas as if it were Chardonnay, is back-ordered through 2005.


On Oil
We think investors should assume that the Fed and other
central bankers will look at $42 oil as a deflationary—not
inflationary—force. It not only depresses consumer spending,
it sucks billions of dollars out of the closely-measured and
integrated OECD economies into the void where Angola,
Nigeria, Venezuela, and Saudi Arabia lurk.
We were as surprised as anyone by the sudden slowdown, but
we doubt oil prices are headed for $50.


[I have been wondering about this. There seems to be a concensus for $50 oil. Is it too one sided or not? - mish]

corporate.bmo.com



To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (10323)8/7/2004 10:58:48 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 116555
 
The Election and The Stock Market

The charts show both the S&P and Bush peaking at the time Howard Dean looked to be the Democratic nominee. Since "the investor class," (and many other observers) considered Dean a far-out extremist, he would be an even easier punching bag for Bush than Michael Dukakis had been for his father.

So when Kerry got the nomination, instead of a presumed wacko, they were looking at a proven war hero, which meant the election was no longer a shoo-in for Bush. Since then, Kerry has united the Democratic Party to a degree it hasn't seen since the Roosevelt era, and he has pulled to a lead in the polls. His ascent has meant investors have had to reconsider a whole range of investment topics they thought were closed—including dividends and drug stocks. That re-examination has come during a time when news from Iraq was discouraging for Americans in general—not just Republicans or investors. That Kerry is, in effect, the beneficiary of all that bad news abroad and all that Bush hatred abroad is no reason to demean Kerry

(Basic Points routinely praised Clinton as a serious President who will be respected by historians, because he used his formidable powers of persuasion to move the Democratic Party into a modernist position on trade and welfare, freeing it from some of its more reactionary vested interests.) Kerry talks of how to ensure that employers can continue to provide health care for employees, his policies on Iraq now sound almost indistinguishable from what Bush is actually trying to do, and his comments on trade are now, as we say, nuanced. Kerry, a highly intelligent man who was a college debating champion, sounds more and more like a credible President. (Indeed, his vocal fluency contrasts sharply with the President's notorious verbal clumsiness.)

Kerry's night at the conclusion of the Convention was a brilliantly-scripted presentation of the candidate as the ideal Commander in Chief. The bio film setting the stage for his appearance, supervised by the master—Spielberg— had dazzling footage of war in Vietnam. Then Kerry's "Band of Brothers" who had served in his swift boats, appeared to praise him as a cool, gutsy hero who fearlessly risked his life to protect his men. His own speech began with a military salute—the scene now on front pages across the land. He came across as a man who really knows what war is about, a man who chose to serve in an unpopular war because of family values of national service. (The unstated subtext was that Bush, another patrician, had arranged to serve in air national guard, exempting himself from joining the fighting.) He looked like a leader comfortable in his own skin, the kind the nation can trust at a time of national crisis. It could well prove to have been the speech that sends him to the White House, because he had until then been facing doubts about his ability to manage in crisis. Watching from his ranch in Texas, Bush must have had a rough evening.

He now has overwhelming media support, greater than any Presidential candidate since Jimmy Carter, and because of tax-exempt "527s" like MoveOn.org. he is matching Bush in spending.

[Who is saying this preposterous stuff? It is none other than those bastions of liberalism, Harris Bank in the USA and the Bank of Montreal in Canada. BTW the article blasts Edwards so no doubt there is fodder for the Neocons in there. Mish]

Here is the funniest line in the Edwards blast......
Sadly, Bush is so verbally-challenged that it is improbable that he will really take the case to Edwards and his wealthy allies.

LMAO

start on page 15
corporate.bmo.com