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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (10326)	8/8/2004 2:00:43 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

<There seems to be a concensus for $50 oil. Is it too one sided or not? - mish]> A tough call, because of the potential for major disruption, but: Message 20385386

To: mishedlo who wrote (10326)	8/9/2004 1:58:52 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 116555

what is the universal agreement? 1) Interest rates are headed up next year 55 out of 55 economists polled all agreed First unanimous vote ever 2) Treasury yields will rise mish, as you know, that was the conssenus at the beginning of this year as well. and was the consensus right before rates spiked in mid-March. i don't really consider the strong consensus here as much of a contrary indicator because they are right that rates SHOULD rise, but probably wrong about thinking Greenspan will do anything material to help them rise. i think it's a crap shoot. There seems to be a concensus for $50 oil. Is it too one sided or not? - mi look at the futures, still way backwardated. look at how cheap the oil and gas equities are. look at how small energy stocks are in terms of S&P weighting (despite their great earnings). widespread short-term bullishness notwithstanding, the consensus on a long-term basis is nowhere near bullish on energy.