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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (11047)	8/26/2004 10:16:57 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

U.S. jobless claims rise 10,000 on storm damage Thursday, August 26, 2004 12:45:47 PM WASHINGTON (AFX) - First-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 10,000 in the week ending Aug. 21 to 343,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. It's the highest level in four weeks. About half the gain was due to the impact of Hurricane Charley, which battered Florida and other Southeastern states on Aug. 13 and 14, a government official said. Despite the increase, the more reliable four-week average of new claims dipped by 750 to 336,750, the lowest in four weeks. Meanwhile, the number of people collecting state unemployment checks rose by 5,000 to 2.897 million in the week ending Aug. 14. The insured unemployment rate remained at 2.3 percent. ============================================================ I bet it is worse not better How many did NOT file because of Charley Mish

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (11047)	8/26/2004 10:21:11 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Eight oil pipelines sabotaged in southern Iraq, says South Oil Co [Ya gotta love the bottom line comment at the end - mish] Thursday, August 26, 2004 11:21:13 AM (Update to add oil ministry says attack will affect exports, detail) BASRA, Iraq (AFX) - Eight oil pipelines in southern Iraq were sabotaged in an overnight explosion, an official at the South Oil Company said. "At 9.00 pm (1700 GMT), a device exploded under a bridge, which collapsed. Eight parallel pipelines, feeding the Zubeir 1 and Zubeir 2 oilfields were damaged," the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity The eight are part of a cluster of 20 at Al-Barjassiya, an official at the oil ministry in Baghdad said "The fire still had not been put out Thursday morning. This sabotage will affect exports," he said, refusing to elaborate The other 12 pipelines are not reported damaged Officials also said that exports will be affected by the attack, which deals yet another blow to the country's vital but beleaguered oil industry The oilfields in question lie 20 km southwest of Iraq's main southern city of Basra, the official said Traders said the news helped to lift prices World oil prices rebounded slightly in the wake the attacks, London traders said The price of benchmark Brent North Sea crude oil for delivery in October climbed 22 cents to 40.90 usd/barrel in opening deals, having shed 1.64 usd/barrel the day before New York's main contract, light sweet crude for October delivery, gained 31 cents to 44.78 usd/barrel in pre-opening electronic trading, having plunged 1.74 usd/barrel yesterday "There's been headlines about problems in the south of Iraq, sabotage to crude oil pipelines overnight," Prudential Bache trader Christopher Bellew said. "That caused the market to rally by about half a dollar at one point, but it came back down a bit. It is not exactly clear what's going on. It seemed earlier that it was causing exports to be interrupted, but, it seems now maybe not." Oil prices plunged yesterday as a modest improvement in the supply outlook encouraged speculators to bank their profits The New York contract meanwhile remains far below last Friday's all-time high of 49.40 usd/barrel =========================================================== fxstreet.com

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (11047)	8/26/2004 10:27:55 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

DATAWATCH Drop in German Ifo suggests slower economic growth in H2 UPDATE Thursday, August 26, 2004 10:54:02 AM (Updates with additional economist comment) FRANKFURT (AFX) - A drop in Germany's Ifo business climate index in August, though smaller than expected, points to slowing economic growth in the second half, economists said "Today's decline suggests the pace of growth in Germany is likely to slow down to an annualised 1.2-1.4 pct in the second half of 2004 from 1.8 pct in the first half," said Bank of America economist Lorenzo Codogno. "It also further strengthens our view that the European Central Bank is unlikely to increase interest rates in the current year," he said The Ifo Institute said its business climate index fell to 95.3 in August from 95.6 in July. Economists polled by AFX News had forecast a drop to 95.0 The August business assessment index was at 94.7, up from 94.1 in July, while the business expectations index fell to 96.0 from 97.1 in July Codogno said the combination of higher oil prices and somewhat softer global demand is starting to feed through to business expectations, "and risks dampening the feeble German recovery" "The outlook for export activity in Germany remains good, but we suspect that companies are starting to worry about the recent moderation in US and Asian demand, while the outlook for domestic demand remains poor," he said Capital Economics economist Julien Seetharamdoo said the Ifo was "not as bad as might have been expected given high oil prices, but is still evidence of an industrial slowdown in H2" He said the fall in the business expectations component of the index points to year-on-year German industrial production growth of less than 2.0 pct in August. "This compares to actual growth of 2.7 pct in June and the recent peak of 3.5 pct in May, which suggests that output growth is set to slow further "The expectations index was signalling growth of over 6.0 pct at the start of 2004," he added Phyllis Papadavid at Lehmen Brothers said the deterioration of business conditions in the manufacturing, retail and wholesale sectors "reflects the theme that the German economic recovery is not on solid ground" "We remain of the view that Germany's export-led recovery remains vulnerable to a slowdown in external demand," she said. "With domestic demand having remained stagnant in the second quarter, hints of weaker growth in Asia and the United States are likely to result in third quarter GDP softening to a slower rate of growth. We expect that the 'hard' data - such as the retail sales and the manufacturing orders report due out in the next two weeks - will be weak in tone." German GDP grew 0.5 pct in the second quarter from the first quarter, driven entirely by export growth Edward Teather at UBS said the Ifo data paint a picture of "increased rates of growth in the present, but progressively less hope for an acceleration of growth in the future". "In all, this data should support the European Central Bank's expectation that the growth recovery remains underway," he said. "The downward trend in expectations since the beginning of the year highlights the uncertainty surrounding the outlook going forward, however, and should give the ECB an incentive to wait and see on policy rates in coming months." Codogno said the ECB is correctly putting more emphasis on the contractionary impact of higher oil prices on growth than on their inflationary effects "While the ECB maintains a moderately positive outlook for the Eurozone economy, the softening in leading indicators of economic activity such as today's IFO will not be missed, and in our view will further reduce the chances of an early monetary tightening," he said fxstreet.com

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (11047)	8/26/2004 10:35:05 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Singapore July manufacturing output slows further, led by electronics Thursday, August 26, 2004 10:13:59 AM SINGAPORE (AFX) - Manufacturing output growth slowed further in July to 19 pct year-on-year, following a revised 19.2 pct in June and 20.50 pct in May, as the electronics sector slackened its pace to 30.9 pct from 36.7 pct in June, according to data from the Economic Development Board (EDB) Overall manufacturing growth for July was within the 17-21.5 pct year-on-year range forecast by economists polled by XFN-Asia The moderation did not suprise economists, as they said it is already expected that production will slow, especially in the second half of this year as the benefit of a lower base of comparison from the year earlier fades While the performance continues to look strong, economists said overall output growth from August onwards will continue to moderate, as electronics output weakens and the base of comparison from August 2003 onwards improved after the end of the Severe Acute Respiratory System (SARS) outbreak "After robust growth of 16.2 pct year-on-year for the first seven months of the year, we are expecting manufacturing output growth to moderate in the months ahead, in line with the more moderate pace of growth expected in the second half," UOB Kay Hian economist Leslie Tang said "We are already seeing some softening in external demand, as indicated by the slightly moderate non-oil domestic exports growth of 17.6 pct year-on-year in July versus 20.9 pct in June," he said Softening external demand has already hit the electronics manufacturing sector in July, with semiconductor output growth slowing to 45.7 pct year-on-year from 49.6 pct in June, and data storage output contracting by 14.1 pct "This moderating trend in exports should extend to the rest of the year, given the slowdown in Singapore's main export markets, namely the US and China. Moreover, we are coming off the peak of the electronics cycle, which should result in softer demand for electronics products in the months ahead," Tang said "But we are unlikely to see a sharp moderation in overall output," he added. "The slowdown in electronics growth is likely to be offset by pharmaceutical growth." In July, the biomedical manufacturing cluster helped offset slower growth in the electronics cluster, with biomedical output growth accelerating to 20.9 pct in July from 17.2 pct in June, the EDB said Excluding the biomedical manufacturing cluster, the EDB said manufacturing growth would have been slower, at 18.7 pct year-on-year in July Within the biomedical cluster, pharmaceutical output rose 23.8 pct year-on-year, while medical technology output was up 9.5 pct year-on-year While the performance of the biomedical sector is much more volatile and difficult to predict, Standard Chartered economist Joseph Tan said that the sector does help counteract softness in the key electronics sector "The (biomedical) sector is a very defensive sector," he said. Besides slowing demand for electronics in the second half, rising oil prices could also contribute to the overall slowdown in the manufacturing sector, economists said UOB Kay Hian's Tang said the impact of high oil prices seems minimal this year, with only the chemicals sector being hit directly "It seems margins in the chemicals sector are being squeezed as a result of high prices," Tang said, noting the sharp slowdown in chemicals output growth to 4 pct year-on-year in July from 11.9 pct year-on-year in June "Its (high oil prices') full impact will only be felt next year," he said Standard Chartered's Tan said that, later on, end-demand may also be crimped by high oil prices

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (11047)	8/26/2004 10:40:12 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

UK manufacturers plan to raise output despite high oil prices [Right in time for slowing world demand!? In the midst of a profit squeeze on oil? - comments anyone? - mish] Thursday, August 26, 2004 8:54:02 AM (Updating with further details of survey, adds quotes) LONDON (AFX) - UK manufacturers remain optimistic despite higher oil prices and recent hikes in UK interest rates, and plan to increase production during the next three months, according to the Confederation for British Industry The CBI said its Monthly Industrial Trends survey shows that 32 pct of firms expect output volume to rise during the next three months, while only 13 pct expect it to go down The resulting positive balance of +19 pct compares with +6 pct in July and +15 in June. The positive outlook on production comes after a slight increase in orders in August. Twenty-one pct of manufacturers said total order books were above normal, and 19 pct said they were below. The positive balance of +2 pct is the first positive balance since May when it was +1 pct, and compares with a balance of -7 pct in July and -6 pct in June, the CBI said Sharp rises in commodity prices have intensified pressure on margins in recent months, with oil prices having risen by over 40 pct since the start of the year, it said However, there are indications that manufacturers are hoping to at least partially offset these costs through price increases Expectations for prices were stronger than at any time since January 1997, with a balance of +11 pct of firms saying they expected average prices to increase over the next three months. This compares to +6 pct in July and -14 pct in August 2003. "The results show that the manufacturing recovery has so far remained on track and that manufacturers are anticipating reasonably buoyant demand conditions in the months ahead," said Doug Godden, CBI Head of Economic Analysis. "If their expectations for price increases are achieved, that will help to limit the impact of rising oil prices on profit margins," he said He warned, however, that there is "little room for complacency" "Future trends in both global demand and energy costs are highly uncertain at present, and manufacturers' profitability is likely to remain under pressure for a while yet". The survey said export order books improved compared with July, although they remained below normal levels overall, with a negative balance of -8 pct comparing to -11 pct in July, after 19 pct of firms said export orders were above normal and 27 pct said they were below Year-on-year, the improvement is more marked, with August 2003 seeing a negative balance of -32 pct The survey also indicated that stocks are healthy, the CBI said, with 65 pct of firms reporting that present stocks of finished goods are adequate. Eighteen pct say stocks are more than adequate, while only 8 pct say they are less than adequate, a positive balance of 10 pct fxstreet.com