Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (11210)	8/31/2004 11:44:30 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Numbers Numbers Numbers What do these numbers tell you 7.4%, 4.2%, 4.5%, 2.8%? That's the quarterly annualized pattern of GDP in the past four quarters. Or how about 324k, 208k, 78k, 32k? That's nonfarm payrolls over the past four months. Or what about -7.4%, +9.1%, -5.6%, -6.4%? That is the percent change in new home sales in the past four months. And what's this -1.7%, -0.6%, -0.3% and +0.1%? It's the change in ex-transportation durable goods orders in the past four months. Or how about 5.3%, 3.3%, 3.8% and 1.2% these are the growth rates for 'discretionary consumer spending' (ex. medical care, food and energy) over the past four quarters. Is the economy taking a breather? Why is the Fed in such a hurry?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (11210)	8/31/2004 1:09:55 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Mass Layoffs bls.gov In July 2004, employers took 2,094 mass layoff actions, as measured by new filings for unemployment insurance benefits during the month, according to data from the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics. Each action involved at least 50 persons from a single establishment, and the number of workers involved totaled 253,929. (See table 1.) Both the number of events and initial claims were higher than a year ago, with the number of mass layoff events and the number of associated initial claims higher than any July since 2001. However, July 2004 contained 5 weeks for possible mass layoffs, compared with 4 weeks in each July of the prior 4 years. From January through July 2004, the total number of events, at 10,208, and of initial claims, at 1,049,541, were lower than in January- July 2003 (11,947 and 1,183,024, respectively). Industry Distribution The 10 industries reporting the highest number of mass-layoff initial claims accounted for 82,562 initial claims in July, 33 percent of the total. (See table A.) The manufacturing sector had 42 percent of all mass layoff events and 57 percent of all initial claims filed in July. A year ago, manufacturing reported 45 percent of events and 60 percent of initial claims. Within manufacturing, the number of claimants was highest in transportation equipment (72,492, mainly automotive-related), followed by plastics and rubber products manufacturing (13,053) and primary metals (8,177). (See table 2.) The administrative and waste services sector accounted for 12 percent of events and 9 percent of initial claims filed in July, with layoffs mainly in temporary help services. Temporary help services, with 13,227 initial claims, accounted for 5 percent of all initial claims in July. Five percent of all layoff events and 4 percent of initial claims filed during the month were in retail trade, primarily in general merchandise stores. Transportation and warehousing accounted for 5 percent of events and 4 percent of initial claims, mostly in school and employee bus transportation. Construction accounted for an additional 6 percent of events and 3 percent of initial claims during the month, primarily among specialty trade contractors. Government establishments accounted for 7 percent of events and 5 percent of initial claims filed during the month, mostly in elementary and secondary schools.