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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: loantech who wrote (18299)	9/2/2004 10:00:59 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

copper does not seem too phased by it. front month lumber has been affected but back months much calmer If a lot of people are uncovered (who could be that stupid?) then they are risking getting wiped out. Can not speak for insurance aspect. Mish

To: loantech who wrote (18299)	9/2/2004 10:01:55 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

The 1926 hurricane (a cat 3) was the coup de grace to the Florida land boom and speculation then. This situation is literally God's Bowling Alley, and will depend on where it hits. If it were to actually track exactly like they have it projected (and as cat 4) this AM intellicast.com then it might come ashore at more lightly populated counties Martin (127,000), and St. Lucie (193,000), and miss a direct hit on Tampa, and stay out of the GOM. I suppose that would be a $10 billion damage hurricane, very disruptive, but not fatal to the Florida economy. But if it comes ashore just 50 miles south, then you're talking Palm Beach (1,131,000), a hit on Tampa, and then into the GOM for potential second landfalls, and energy disruption. Even worse would be a hundred miles south of present track, and you get Broward (1,623,000), another possible hit on Tampa, and even more GOM trouble (New Orleans?). If it tracks 50 miles north you get Brevard (476,000) and then a 100 mph hit on Orlando, and then it just chews up northern Florida. Add in the fact that it could hit at 4-5 foot high tides, or slow down and just churn like an overflowing washing machine. Those scenarios are where you get the fatal $30-100 billion wipeouts. Just doesn't look like the markets are expecting that? I wonder why, odds aren't that great that it won't happen.