Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (11369)	9/3/2004 9:01:14 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

The U.S. labor market bounced back in August, adding 144,000 jobs just two months ahead of the presidential election. The Labor Department report, which showed unemployment falling to 5.4%, clears the way for another interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve later this month. The number of jobs added in June and July was revised higher: July went from 32,000 added to 73,000 added, while June went from 78,000 added to 96,000 added. 120,000 jobs added by the business birth/death adjustment. Without that it would be only 24,000 jobs. bls.gov

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (11369)	9/3/2004 9:38:17 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

U.S. Aug. job report guarantees Sept rate hike Friday, September 3, 2004 1:15:07 PM WASHINGTON (AFX) -- The August unemployment report is strong enough to ensure that the Federal Reserve will remain on the path of measured rate hikes, including a quarter percentage point rate hike at the next meeting on Sept. 21, said Josh Shapiro, chief economist at MFR Inc. "This report all but guarantees that the FOMC will implement another 25bp tightening move when it next meets on September 21. Fed Chairman Greenspan's Congressional testimony next Wednesday is likely to foreshadow this, and he can be expected to reiterate the Fed's view that the economic 'soft patch' is no reason to deviate from a course of normalizing short term interest rates," Shapiro said in a note to clients

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (11369)	9/3/2004 9:50:26 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

UK Aug house prices down 0.6 pct vs July, up 21.3 pct yr-on-yr - HBOS UPDATE Friday, September 3, 2004 7:35:01 AM (Updating with more details throughout) LONDON (AFX) - Higher UK borrowing costs have led to a drop in house prices, a closely watched survey found today The monthly house price index from HBOS PLC unit, Halifax, found that house prices fell by 0.6 pct in August from the previous month for an annual rise of 21.3 pct The month-on-month fall is only the tenth in the past five years which has been marked by a period of heady gains In July prices rose 1.3 and 22.1 pct respectively The latest data backs up Nationwide Building Society's equivalent house price index which rose just 0.1 pct from July - the smallest gain since November 2000 - for an annual increase of 18.9 pct. Taken together, the two main indicators of house price inflation signal that the Bank of England's series of rate hikes have started to work, in turn reducing the need to put up rates even further Still, many observers expect one more rate hike in 2004, most probably in November. In the three months to August, house prices rose just 1.8 pct, well down on the 6.5 pct increase in the previous three months "It is becoming increasingly clear that the five rises in interest rates since November 2003 are acting as a brake on house price growth," Halifax said But activity levels remain at historically high levels and are consistent with a moderating housing market. The strong economic background, historically low debt-servicing costs and supply shortages are underpinning the market, it added. "We continue to expect house price inflation to slow gradually over the remainder of 2004 and into next year as higher interest rates and the increasing difficulties faced by potential first-time buyers in entering the market curb housing demand," said Martin Ellis, HBOS chief economist The pace of house price inflation has dropped off significantly since May with an average monthly increase in prices of 0.6 pct in the past three months, down from over 2 pct in the first five months of the year fxstreet.com

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (11369)	9/3/2004 2:21:13 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

John Succo on Minyanville was talking about jobs today. A writer wrote in and said you just can not subtract the birth death agjustment from the reported figures because the birth are not seasonally adjusted. John's reply was the total number of jobs created this year was about 1.7M and that both adjusted and unadjusted numbers were close to that amount. Over half of that is birth/death adjustments. He went on to say "We do not know how they come up with that number. For all we know it could be NEGATIVE". [Mish comment. It seems that applying seasionally unadjusted job factor to adjusted numbers is a croc, then again, the whole exercise of birth/death estimates (based on what pray tell - pulling numbers out of their ass?)is a crock in and of itself.] Mish