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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GraceZ who wrote (11404)	9/3/2004 5:26:45 PM
From: CalculatedRisk	Respond to of 116555

Good points. I'm all for statistical sampling, but I would like it better if I understood the assumptions for the birth/death model. First, of the 1.7 million jobs added to the payroll report in the last 18 months, 1.3 million were from the birth/death model. That says existing businesses are still not hiring. This new model (added last year) may or may not be working properly ... I wish we knew the assumptions that were fed into the model. Do they use GDP growth and then factor in a normal birth/death rate? Bottomline: I wish it was more transparent, especially since it is a huge portion of the current job creation.