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To: EL KABONG!!! who wrote (53260)	9/12/2004 7:02:33 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Hello KJC, I gave the "China will Depress" issue some thought while swimming, and then pondered some more while getting my feet flexed. I am now figuring: Depression should be defined by 'depression of GDP by 25%', ala Argentina ... Indonesia ... Zimbabwe, and eventually, debt-cleansed USA, perhaps; Let's say that China slips or crashes into Depression, at some point between Now and 2010, for say a period of 36 months, then China, having grown GDP at 9% range year after year after year after year, gives three of those years back ... so what, but a bit of pain, cushioned by enormous savings pool, massive printing, and huge infrastructure spending, ala Japan, at least similar. Slower growth countries, and especially low-savings and high-debt nations with excess infrastructure already in place, would give up 9 years of previous growth, possibly more, and so a bit harder to say, "so what?". So, I conclude it is better for the world that China has a Depression sooner rather than later, if it is going to have a depression at all, so its global effect is less, relative to rest of world GDP. In the case of China having a Depression in 2020, then "ouch" for the world, but less "ouch" for China, mathematically speaking. Chugs, Jay

To: EL KABONG!!! who wrote (53260)	9/13/2004 12:39:35 AM
From: AC Flyer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

>>As for a time frame, I have none, other than to speculate that I think it will be much further out than 2009, maybe in the 2015 - 2020 range<< Kerry, it's possible to pinpoint the potential onset of a severe Chinese Depression to 2020. This probable Chinese Depression was baked in the cake 25 years ago by the CCP's 1979 introduction of the one-child policy. axe.acadiau.ca You can see how successful this policy was by the enormous reduction in 5 to 14 year olds in China's population pyramid circa 1990. Clearly the one-child policy was most successful in its early years. census.gov This policy, btw, followed 20 years of what may be somewhat indelicately described as the Great Helmsman's "f*$k for China" program, which resulted in an increase in China's population of approximately 200 million people in the 1950s and 1960s - ah, the many and varied pleasures of totalitarianism. The net result of all this reproductive interference is a hugely distorted population pyramid. Anyway, project the yawning demographic chasm forward to 2020 and this is what you get: census.gov You can see that the leading edge of the demographic chasm is now arriving at age 45 (suggesting btw that the one-child dictum was informally applied before 1979, when it became explicit CCP policy). The economic consequences of this will likely prove devastating to the Chinese economy. The US, for entirely different reasons, will be experiencing a similar phenomenon beginning in approximately 2012. census.gov Imagine the possibilities - a severe US Depression from 2012 to ~2023, followed by a catastrophic China Depression from ~2020 to ~2030. Jay will be ecstatic.