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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (12139)	9/23/2004 10:37:36 AM
From: Chispas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Letting the truth seep through this morning (Urban Survival)... "..51% of people they (WSJ) polled disapprove of the way George 2 has handled the economy. Not without reason, as it turns out. We went back and looked up where the Dow was when voters went to the polls in November of 2000. Surprise: The Dow closed election day at 10,952.18. While we can't get excited about either of the candidates running for the White House, as such thoughts lead to elevated blood pressure, we can nevertheless report that if the elections were held today a Dow portfolio would be down 7.7% compared with the same holding in November 2000. To make matters worse, a portfolio that had been made up of the NASDAQ 100 (IXIC) would have declined from Election day 2000's 3,415.79 to 1,885.19 at yesterday's close. That's a whopping 44.8% decline. Then there is the performance of the S&P 500 for the same period. Yesterday, the S&P 500 closed at 1,113.56 versus a close of 1,431.87 on November 7, 2000. It's a 22.2% decline for the S&P. But wait. It gets even worse for GW. We have also have to account for inflation during the intervening four years between then and now. Assuming 3% per year, compounded, that's a 9.27% decline in purchasing power of the portfolio. So we can either add 9.27% purchasing power to the 2000 market figures, or subtract 9.27% for four years worth of inflation and apply it today today's number to put everything basis 2000 purchasing power. Yes, we could quibble about the annual inflation rate, but calling it 3% per year seems if anything quite charitable. If you want to do a different calculation, you're welcome to. Our point is this is not the kind of economic record anyone would willingly stand on...(Continued)" urbansurvival.com

To: mishedlo who wrote (12139)	9/23/2004 10:48:49 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 116555

mish when trading is based mostly on black box algorithm or momentum there is no reason for any thing. If most people have the same algorithm the market moves in same direction - so may be he is right <GG> To made sense of financial markets today is “Mission Impossible” as there are so many contrarians to contrarians to …. etc. …. What is more interesting that is seems that earning arrived at the upper level for US corporation – but same was in 1996 and the market went straight up any way into Y2000