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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (12392)	9/28/2004 12:48:52 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

IMF sees greater risks than opportunities for growth in 2005 - German source Tuesday, September 28, 2004 4:38:12 PM afxpress.com BERLIN (AFX) - The IMF will say the risks are greater than opportunities for growth in 2005 in its autumn report to be published tomorrow, according to a source close to the German government "The risks are greater than opportunities (...) particularly due to the sharp rise in oil prices," the source said citing the IMF report "Volatility (in prices) has increased sharply. That could weigh on the world outlook in the long term," the source said However, the IMF report will say that the current rise in oil prices "is not comparable with the oil crisis of the 1970s," as the world is less dependent on oil for energy and inflation is under control The IMF will also call on the European Central Bank to keep interest rates at a low level due to weak domestic demand within the euro zone, the source said

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (12392)	9/28/2004 12:54:03 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

SEC charges 4 with insider trading in bank deal (C) By August Cole SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- The Securities and Exchange Commission has charged four people with insider trading related to Citibank's (C) acquisition of Golden State Bancorp in 2002, the agency said Tuesday. The SEC alleges that Mark Kelly, chief financial officer of Golden State's Auto One Finance, told two friends about Citibank's due diligence of Golden State. A fourth person was also tipped off. The people charged in the case bought call options for Golden State and shares of the company ahead of the public announcement of the takeover. One of the men has settled with the SEC, without admitting or denying the allegations.

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (12392)	9/28/2004 1:41:53 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Here is the weekly interest rate chart for the DEC 06 Euribor futuresource.com A breakout in this chart (breakdown in the implied yield) on the DEC 06 EURO interest rate contract should be bullish for gold. declining interest rates expectations in the US should also be bullish for gold Here is the chart for eurodollars futuresource.com Mish

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (12392)	9/28/2004 1:46:59 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Respond to of 116555

Nice day for Rio Tinto, Broken Hill and the other base metal miners. A big contract for iron ore with China.

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (12392)	9/28/2004 5:23:14 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Clipping Fannies wings economist.com

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (12392)	9/28/2004 5:53:22 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Heinz on oil [Mish question: Is this the deal... Opec has hedged their production at $30 brl and is getting nothing out of this rise? In that scenario, they really do want it to fall] Date: Tue Sep 28 2004 15:45 trotsky (frustrated@oil executives downplaying fundamentals) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved one of the reasons is that many of them believed the BS Wall Street's oil analysts put out, and are thus hedged up the wazoo - and when you've hedged a good portion of production at $30 bbl., you're naturally not happy to see it trade at $50. it means you were wrong and listened to the wrong advice - and most people don't like to admit they're wrong. perma-bear Fadel Gheit is now proclaiming that there's a $20 'fear premium' in the price - which is code for 'i was right all along, , or at least almost right - if you take that out'. it's the hedonic indexing and seasonal adjustment of wrong forecasts strategy.

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (12392)	9/28/2004 6:17:21 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116555

KT how much do you subscribe to this theory? Edwards blames high oil and gas prices on Iraq war Tuesday, September 28, 2004 8:41:10 PM WASHINGTON (AFX) -- As oil prices hit all-time highs and topped $50 per barrel for the first time ever, Democratic nominee for vice president John Edwards blamed the rising gasoline prices on President Bush's "mismanagement" of the Iraq war "Before the war, the Bush administration was predicting that oil prices would be $27 a barrel at this point, but they are actually almost twice that," Edwards said in a written statement released by the Kerry campaign Crude futures closed under $50 a barrel, but still marked a third consecutive session at record high with most analysts expecting updates on U.S. petroleum inventories this week to show another round of hefty declines Crude for November delivery climbed to a high of $50.47 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract then pulled back to close at $49.90, up 26 cents for the session "One central reason for these high prices is this administration's mismanagement of Iraq and the sabotage of Iraqi oil pipelines.Â Meanwhile, as your gas prices go up, the oil companies' profits go up," Edwards said, evoking the populist tone of his unsuccessful primary run for the presidency Democrats hope to parlay voter anxiety about oil prices into support for Democratic nominee John Kerry on election day "This is, I think, one of the reasons the president is going to lose on election day," Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., told reporters in a conference call organized by the Kerry campaign Schumer criticized last week's announcement that the Energy Department would release a couple million barrels of oil from the nation's reserve to refiners hurt by supply disruptions to the Gulf Coast after several storms as insufficient for lowering prices Schumer said the Bush administration should hold off on filling the Strategic Petroleum Reserves to its limit while prices are at record highs "The only people who like it are the oil companies and the Saudis," Schumer said White House spokesman Scott McClellan told reporters in Crawford, Texas that the Senate Democrats, including Kerry, are responsible for blocking legislation aimed at increasing the supply of oil "The president put forward a comprehensive national energy plan that would help make America energy self-sufficient. We need to reduce our dependence on foreign sources of energy," McClellan said "It would be passed if a minority of Senate Democrats weren't blocking that plan. And that would help us to address this problem that comes up year after year," the spokesman added The Senate is controlled by Republicans, but procedural rules require 60 votes for legislation to move forward in the chamber. The bill garnered 58 votes when it was last considered a year ago Senate Energy Committee Chairman Pete Domenici said instability in Nigeria, bad weather and tight domestic supply are all likely to cause prices to climb further "That's great news for (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) nations, but deeply troubling news for the U.S. economy and American consumers," Domenici said, "OPEC is going to haul in from $300 to $360 billion in additional export earnings this year due solely to the surge in oil prices." Bush campaign spokesman Scott Stanzel challenged Kerry and Edwards to "come back" and "become the 59th and 60th votes needed to move forward on the president's national energy policy."

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (12392)	9/29/2004 1:54:24 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116555

Ron Paul on the IMF KT got a take on this? house.gov You won't hear either presidential candidate say much about the issue of foreign aid during this election season, despite the record levels of federal spending and debt that plague our economy. Very few Americans realize the extent to which Congress sends billions of their tax dollars overseas to fund the most counterproductive foreign welfare schemes imaginable, always in the guise of helping the poor. A recent report by the congressional Joint Economic Committee on which I serve highlights the reckless manner in which one organization, the International Monetary Fund, wastes your money around the world. The IMF provides a perfect illustration of the both the folly of foreign aid and the real motivations behind it. The IMF touts itself as a bank of sorts, although it makes “loans” that no rational bank would consider-- mostly to shaky governments with weak economies and unstable currencies. The IMF has little incentive to operate profitably like a private bank, since its funding comes mostly from a credulous US Congress that demands little accountability. As a result, it is free to make high-risk loans at below- market interest rates. The real purpose of the IMF is to channel tax dollars to politically-connected companies. The huge multinational banks and corporations in particular love the IMF, as both used IMF funds-- taxpayer funds-- to bail themselves out from billions in losses after the Asian financial crisis. Big corporations obtain lucrative contracts for a wide variety of construction projects funded with IMF loans. It's a familiar game in Washington, where corporate welfare is disguised as compassion for the poor. In fact, IMF loans often do far more harm than good. At best IMF borrowers are governments of countries with little economic productivity; at worst the money ends up in the hands of corrupt dictators. Either way, most recipient nations face huge debts they cannot service, which only adds to their poverty and instability. IMF money ultimately corrupts those countries it purports to help, by keeping afloat reckless political institutions that destroy their own economies. Government-to-government transfers through a middleman like the IMF cannot produce real growth. When capital remains in private hands, it is allocated to its most productive uses as determined by the choices of consumers in the market. Placing capital in the hands of politicians and bureaucrats inevitably results in inefficiencies, shortages, and economic crises, as even the best-intentioned politicians cannot know the most efficient use of resources. American taxpayers already lend various governments more than $5 billion annually through the IMF, at a yearly cost of over $300 million because of loan defaults and subsidized interest rates. Now the IMF wants to double its pool of funding, which will put taxpayers on the hook for $12 billion in loans at a cost of about $750 million each year. Furthermore, since the IMF creates “drawing rights” accounts that are redeemable in US dollars, it in essence prints US dollars when it increases those drawing rights. This is a clear violation of our national sovereignty, and a vivid example of why we should stop participating in international schemes like the IMF altogether. The IMF and other complex schemes only serve to obscure the real issue: Why should US taxpayers be forced to send money abroad? Certainly the Constitution provides no authority for foreign aid. In historical and practical terms, redistribution of wealth from rich to poor nations has done little or nothing to alleviate suffering abroad. Only free markets, property rights, and the rule of law can create the conditions necessary to lift poor nations out of poverty.