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To: LindyBill who wrote (74505)	10/2/2004 11:08:12 PM
From: Gus	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793955

Great observation from LGF. They reduced the percentage of Republicans in the sample from 41% to 35% (or by 6 full percentage points) and increased the percentage of Democrats from 31% to 37% (again by 6 full percentage points) while keeping the percentage of Independents constant and increasing the sample size slightly by a little over 10%. Yet despite all those stupid statistical tricks they could only give Kerry a 2 point lead which is well within the margin of error of 4%. Newsweek Newsweek Post-911 Poll Post-Debate Poll . . Republican 41% 35% Democrat 31% 37% Independent 28% 28% . Total 100% 100% . Sample Size 961 987 The Newsweek poll was consistently the outlier among polls and widely discounted outside a poll of polls format. It appears to me that Newsweek padded the post-GOP convention poll with Republicans and normalized it after the first debate to exaggerate any Kerry debate bounce. I tell ya', Kinsey of the Kinsey report fame would have been proud of the way these objective reporters are attempting to impose their own reality on a wartime election. Everything is really on the table now...... Kinsey's Figures on Homosexuality With the above in mind, it is shocking that, almost overnight, following release of Kinsey's Sexual Behavior in the Human Male (and a succession of earlier private, public relations briefings at the Kinsey Institute for favorable interviewers), books, articles, films, news clips, cartoons, radio, TV, and front-page stories appeared coast to coast as part of a publicity campaign to institutionalize Kinsey's claims. Americans believed "the most famous man for ten years" that primitive, sexually permissive cultures were happier than were Mr. and Mrs. Jones. However, without question, any "scientists" who reprint and encourage production of data on child sexuality which have been taken from child sex offenders engaged in "manual or oral" sex with babies and children, are not scientists but propagandists-indeed guilty of admitted criminal sexual conduct, by the descriptions in their publications, whether the sexual offender(s) were identified and prosecuted or not. To trust anything these men or their disciples produce is to put one's faith in those who use the language of science to accomplish personal, criminal, and/or sexual interests. Hence, whatever Kinsey's claims of homosexual percentages and normality were, these become, pragmatically, as invalid as his child sexuality data. Kinsey fathered not only the sexual revolution, as Hugh Hefner and others have said, but the homosexual revolution as well. Harry Hay gave Kinsey that credit when Hay read in 1948 that Kinsey found "10%" of the male population homosexual. Following the successful path of the Black Civil Rights movement, Hay, a long-time communist organizer, said 10% was a political force which could be melded into a "sexual minority" only seeking "minority rights." With Kinsey as the wind in his sails, Hay formed the Mattachine Society. But 26% (1,400) of Kinsey's alleged 5,300 white male subjects were already "sex offenders."[34] As far as the data can be established, an additional 25% were incarcerated prisoners; some numbers were big city "pimps," "hold-up men," "thieves;" roughly 4% were male prostitutes as well as sundry other criminals; and some hundreds of homosexual activists at various "gay bars" and other haunts from coast to coast.[35] This group of social outcasts and deviants were then redefined by the Kinsey team as representing your average "Joe College." With adequate press and university publicity, the people believed what they were told by our respectable scientists, that mass sexual perversion was common nationwide-so our sex education and our laws must be changed to reflect Kinsey's "reality." Following the release of Kinsey, Sex and Fraud,[36] the then Kinsey Institute Director, Dr. June Reinisch, initiated a "CONFIDENTIAL," international, 87-page mass-mailing of accusatory materials calling upon recipients to repudiate "Judith Reisman's accusations." One of the accusations Reinisch wanted repudiated was the fact that Kinsey's 10% to 47% or more homosexual data were fraudulently generalized to the "general public." (Kinsey's homosexual figures were exposed as wholly false in 1948 by Albert Hobbs et al, as well as by several other scientists then and since.) leaderu.com

To: LindyBill who wrote (74505)	10/2/2004 11:17:39 PM
From: Sully-	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793955

Well, the MSM is using the Newsweek poll right now. They put up a huge graph showing Kerry is in the lead while they call it a statistical tie. So far, every channel I've watched trumpeted this poll replete with glowing reports about Kerry & clips of him attacking Bush. If I didn't know better, I would have thought I had on the DNC Channel. No mention of polling bias in any of these stories. I knew that factiod would shock you. :-\

To: LindyBill who wrote (74505)	10/2/2004 11:32:43 PM
From: Sully-	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793955

Thune 50%, Daschle 46% Daschle v. Thune has the latest. How about this, too: Daschle: Favorable: 52%, Unfavorable: 46% Thune: Favorable, 58%, Unfavorable: 37% For a challenger in one of the country's most hard-fought Senate races, Thune's favorable/unfavorable ratio is astonishing. If those numbers are right, it's hard to see how Daschle can beat him. Posted by Hindrock powerlineblog.com

To: LindyBill who wrote (74505)	10/3/2004 3:58:05 PM
From: Knight	Respond to of 793955

Polls Stubborn for Kerry Despite Debate "Win" I just posted the following message over on the "President George W. Bush" thread. I linked back to your post on the Newsweek poll and thought you would be interested. Message 20596130 Polls Stubborn for Kerry Despite Debate "Win" The latest Rasmussen poll has Bush back in the lead over Kerry 49% to 45%. This is a rolling three day period with 2/3 of the interviews taking place after the debate. Since yesterday's three-day number showed a slightly smaller Bush margin, that implies that Saturday's interviews must've been even more strongly in Bush's favor than 49%-45%. Some may point to the recent Newsweek poll for contrary evidence; however, before doing so, they should be aware that there are some serious irregularities with that poll. The following post from Lindybill over on the moderated "Politics for Pros" thread explains: Message 20594570 See also the followup from Gus: Message 20594768 While I'm not quite ready to subscribe to Gus's conspiratorial view of how the pre- and post-debate polls got so skewed, it is unarguable that the disparity between the proportion of Republicans and Democrats in the two polls makes any sort of apples-to-apples comparison suspect. I think Kerry's problem is two-fold: 1) Voters are now starting to understand that his views are decidedly to the left of the mainstream. A well-articulated position in a debate may win my admiration for presentation skills, but if I don't agree with what's presented, it doesn't win my vote. In fact it makes the contrast to my own views crystal clear. 2) Voter's don't trust John Kerry. No matter what specific position Kerry takes on the war, Republicans can find a quotation from his own mouth that contradicts that position. The salesman at the corner used car lot may be a better talker than a friend whose earned my trust, but I'd much prefer to buy a used car from my friend, and the fact that he may stutter a bit when he describes the car to me doesn't alter in any way that trust. That's the advantage Bush has. He has earned our trust. any way that trust.