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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Biomaven who wrote (13314)	10/5/2004 2:08:00 PM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

CHIR has had its license suspeded, so I think the concern goes beyond the human flu vaccine, which was slated to be almost 50 million doses for the US this season. These things have a way of snowballing. First it was 1-2 million doses affected by contamination. Now it is all of this year's supply to the US. I don't think they get their license back aotomatically. They still have to prove that they can manufacture a safe product. Speaking of flu vaccine, CHIR is also working on an avian (H9N2) flu vaccine. The virus seems to be on the move and now is presenting like dengue fever recombinomics.com The virus seems to be several steps ahead of the vaccine manufacturers.

To: Biomaven who wrote (13314)	10/5/2004 2:41:31 PM
From: A.J. Mullen	Respond to of 52153

I bought Medi this morning on the basis that a shortage might get the nasal vaccine accepted and remedy the debacle of last year's introduction. I'm surprised it hasn't moved more. Ashley

To: Biomaven who wrote (13314)	10/5/2004 2:42:13 PM
From: A.J. Mullen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

I bought (back into) Medi this morning on the basis that a shortage might get the nasal vaccine accepted and remedy the debacle of last year's introduction. I'm surprised it hasn't moved more. Ashley

To: Biomaven who wrote (13314)	10/5/2004 3:45:13 PM
From: OldAIMGuy	Respond to of 52153

Hi B, Re: CHIR Flu Vaccine....... This will impact current year's earnings by about 25% to 33%. Estimates are that earnings will drop from around $1.50/share to around $1.00 to $1.20. I've held shares of CHIR for years. It's been somewhat lacklustre for a couple of years now. I did have an outstanding order to add about 10% to my position if the price fell below about $38. However, being an open order it filled at $30 when trading opened on it. So, if nothing else, I can play the bounce. I'd still like to be out of the stock some time in the future. There's been better plays in recent years. I've never lost money on CHIR, but in the last few years, it's been range bound tightly enough to make it harder to profit trading shares. Best regards, Tom