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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (12928)	10/6/2004 10:17:02 AM
From: zonder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Received this today on UK: UK Industry Stares Down The Abyss ..............................................Aug..........Jul % change Industrial production m/m.....-0.8 ........-0.5 (R from -0.3) Industrial production y/y.....-0.1 ........-0.1 (R from +0.1) Official Trend Annual rate....-0.5 ........+1.5 Manufacturing m/m.............-0.8 ........-0.4 (R from -0.2) Manufacturing y/y.............+0.4 ........+0.7 (R from +0.9) Output of UK production industries contracted sharply for the third successive month in August. This is indeed a very STRONG SIGNAL about momentum in this sector of the UK economy. Not only is the time lagged official data signalling a slowdown but we now see that all the main forward looking surveys (CBI and PMI) of manufacturing are pointing decisively southwards. It is almost impossible to put a positive gloss on the official output data. Both industrial and manufacturing output contracted by a substantial 0.8% on the month in August following weak and downward revised July data. The best measures of underlying momentum in this sector are the official ONS trend measure (which fell from +1.5% in July to -0.5% in August) and the 3 months/ previous 3 months measures. Both manufacturing and industrial output were down by 0.4%. Conclusions : Reassurances from central bankers (and in this regard the Bank of England is less culpable than the ECB and the Fed) that "growth is strengthening" will increasingly fall on deaf ears in financial markets because both the real economy data and the forward looking surveys are telling a different story.