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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: former_pgs who wrote (13370)	10/6/2004 10:21:38 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

scenarios are relevant to valuation to a degree Absolutely on point for this thread. Interesting what you are suggesting - usually people here are on the other side of these straddles or strangles (as rkrw recently successfully was with AGIX). What's different here is that the imnplied volatilities are very high for a distant maturity - that's very unusual. If Stellar 3 is a big success, the stock could go above $16 given that right now there appears to be considerable skepticism on the street about the trial (and about the company) and there is a big short position. So that perhaps argues for the buy/write as the better strategy. Peter

To: former_pgs who wrote (13370)	10/6/2004 11:33:03 PM
From: Rocky9	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

Well, I think that I have made my decision on CTIC buy-write. I think that I will do a buy and write on the Dec. 7.5s, with the hope that I will be able to rewrite the March 10s in Dec/Jan. It caps the gain at a much smaller % on the first write, but allows the hope of more downside protection in the aggregate (and downside protection is my primary concern these days). If I knew more about the company (and thanx to everyone for the discussion so far - I will be learning as I go along), I would try to play the upside more.