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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (11677)	10/9/2004 11:47:36 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

Layoffs expected in chip-equipment business Silicon Strategies 10/08/2004, 5:35 PM ET SAN JOSE, Calif. — Bill Ong, an analyst for American Technology Research Inc., believes that chip-equipment makers are ready for a new round of layoffs. "Our industry checks indicate that front-end tool makers largely expect orders to be up percent quarter-over-quarter for the September/October quarter with a 10 percent plus dip in December/January quarter, followed by a rebound by perhaps 5 percent in 1QCY05 and further growth in 2QCY05," Ong said in a report on Friday (Oct. 8). "We believe that two major front-end tool makers will implement a workforce reduction by the end of this month to reduce the margin de-leveraging if, and when, revenue falls off," he said. He did not identify the companies, however. There is more bad news for vendors. Avinash Kant, an analyst Adams Harkness Inc., this week downgraded his forecasts for Lam Research Corp. and Novellus Systems Inc. "We expect Novellus to meet its Q3 order, revenue and EPS guidance but believe Q4 orders guidance will be down 10-20 percent sequentially, in line with our expectations for most leading equipment manufacturers in the group," he said. Given the drop in orders, Kant is revising his CY04 and CY05 numbers for Novellus down to $1.10 on $1.4 billion and $1.10 on $1.5 billion vs. old $1.15 on $1.43 billion and $1.50 on $1.66 billion, respectively. "We expect Lam to show relative outperformance vs. the peer group, as we believe orders in the September quarter will likely come in at +5 percent q/q vs. the group that should likely report sequentially flattish orders," Kant said. "While December order guidance will likely be down sequentially, we expect Lam to guide for orders to be down 0-10 percent sequentially, once again better than our expectation of down 10-20 percent for the rest of the group." Kant revised his CY04 and CY05 numbers down for Lam to $1.62 on $1.37 billion and $1.80 on $1.51 billion vs. old $1.66 on $1.39 billion and $2.15 on $1.63 billion, respectively.

To: Ian@SI who wrote (11677)	10/11/2004 9:00:52 AM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 25522

Hi Ian, Good read. The timing sounds about right as most long term rech "holders "are greatly dismated with 04 negative price action as earnings have become positive. We have to remember that the entire tech blowoff in 99 and 00 all occurred as the advance decline lines continued the get worse. Tech is usually a late cycle play with software and the internet being very late in the last cycle. My bet is we will slowly be rewarded from these levels. IATL It always takes longer. Thanks for the good read. Bob