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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: g_w_north who wrote (135725)	10/11/2004 11:47:27 AM
From: Rink	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Question: Intel added inventory. Is that likely to be both in processors and flash? Kind regards, Rink Credit Suisse First Boston expects Intel (nasdaq: INTC - news - people ) to report third-quarter results in line with its estimate for earnings of 27 cents per share on $8.4 billion on revenue. "We believe September had normal growth off a weaker August," CSFB said. The research firm said it expects "conservative" fourth-quarter guidance Intel increased inventory $427 million quarter-over-quarter in the second quarter and indicated in its mid-third-quarter update that inventory could ramp a further $150 million "due to slower demand than expected and ramp of product outside processors." CSFB said, "We believe the company will cut wafer starts aggressively in the fourth quarter of 2004 and first half of 2005 to lower inventory, but at the expense of near-term gross margins." Overall CSFB has a "mixed outlook" for Intel, seeing "some risk" to reduced consensus 2005 revenue estimates due to the lack of a driver for average selling prices or units, mild PC unit growth and potential overcapacity. CSFB rate Intel at "outperform" with a $25 target price.

To: g_w_north who wrote (135725)	10/11/2004 11:49:44 AM
From: DRBES	Respond to of 275872

SAY ME ! AMD is now in an historically unique position for it on not being particularly vulneralble at the very low end where the processor part of this inventory will hit the hardest.

To: g_w_north who wrote (135725)	10/11/2004 11:57:40 AM
From: Plissken	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Assuming it is not unsold high bit density flash and 3.4+ GHz low power Prescotts, the impact will be at the low margin end of things. True, it would suck to lose Lenovo to a glut of Celerons and slow Prescotts, but it might hurt Intel worse than AMD to squirt that stuff out at basement bargain prices.

To: g_w_north who wrote (135725)	10/11/2004 12:18:35 PM
From: dougSF30	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

It doesn't plug into the same socket. And attempting to "dump" it will hurt Intel more than AMD. I think a charge off is likely. They would be wise to charge it off in Q3, and get the issue behind them. Most of this inventory was built up early in the year. Translation: really bad-binning, high-power 90nm Prescott junk. Finally, AMD was aware of Intel's inventory when they predicted stronger than seasonal (10-12%) growth in Q4 CPG revenues. That's unusually strong guidance for Hector. Doug

To: g_w_north who wrote (135725)	10/11/2004 1:16:57 PM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

gw, As an AMD shareholder I would have thought the more important point to pick out of that paragraph would have been the fact that there is approximately $577 million worth of product in inventory. If anybody out there doesn't think that this is not going to impact AMD immensely then they need medical attention. I'm not saying who! ;) Let's think this through: Is an additional processor placed on the market for sale necessarily going to take a sale from AMD? If so, all Intel needs to do is to make extra 6 to 8M processors and AMD and AMD is out of business. Intel can undercut AMD, but how do you undercut only AMD and not your own higher priced CPUs? I don't know it is entirely clear cut. And another thing, what difference does it make if the CPU is in inventory or coming freshly out of the fab in this equation? A stale CPU from inventory actually limits choices of what Intel can do with them. What would make it very clearly bad for AMD is if a big portion of this inventory is in flash, and if Intel is determined to get rit of it quickly. Joe