This IS important. It will tell us what their internal polls say. Kerry Spot.
KEEP AN EYE ON WHAT STATES THEY CAMPAIGN IN [10/14 11:33 PM]
This bit from tomorrow morning’s Washington Post has some grumbling among Kerry Spot readers:
Kerry and Bush strategists largely agree on the battlefield, and who is winning in each state — save Ohio. While the Bush campaign says it is winning Ohio, Kerry's internal polling shows the president losing by about five points and fading, according to two aides. Kerry will campaign in Ohio this weekend and many more times before election day.
The Kerry campaign is confident that it is winning Pennsylvania and Michigan by comfortable margins and pulling slightly ahead in Florida, a must-win state for Bush. The Kerry campaign's polling shows Bush leading in Iowa and West Virginia, and running about even in Wisconsin.
Kerry, however, has largely failed to erode the president's strong support among rural voters, especially in the upper Midwest, and among the devoutly religious, according to Greenberg. Democrats credit Bush's support among the religious and rural for small, but significant, leads in Iowa, which Gore won in 2000, and West Virginia, as well as stronger-than-expected numbers in Wisconsin and Minnesota.
Obviously, "internal polls" for each campaign always seem to contain good news for that particular campaign. I am curious which Bush campaign staffer confirmed to the Post that Bush is losing Florida. Notice none are quoted. Also note that Bush is leading Iowa (7 electoral votes from a Blue state) and if Kerry says Bush is even in Wisconsin, one can conclude he must be running strongly (there's another ten votes Kerry has to make up).
Look, you're going to get a lot of poll numbers thrown at you in the next few weeks. Relax. Deep breath. There is one factor that a campaign cannot hide, and that is where they have the candidate campaigning.
You can always raise more money, you can always run more ads, but in the end you only have one candidate for president and one candidate for vice president, and they can only attend rallies in so many states in each day.
The 2000 results were close to dead even - so Bush wants to pick up blue states while Kerry needs to pick up at least seven electoral votes in additional red states.
Note in this article: “In a break from his normal routine, Edwards traveled by bus through Iowa today, before a flight to Des Moines where he will meet Kerry for a joint rally tonight.”
Iowa - a blue state that they‘re committing both candidates to on the same day? Now, look at the recent schedule for the candidates, as I‘ve been able to piece together from news reports and the candidates‘ web sites. (I am not certain that this list is complete.)
Kerry's recent schedule:
Oct. 14 - Nevada (AARP convention), Iowa
Oct. 13 - Arizona, for debate
Oct. 13 - New Mexico
Oct. 12 - New Mexico
Oct. 11 - New Mexico
Oct. 10 - Florida, Ohio
Oct. 9 - Missouri, Florida
Oct. 8 - St. Louis, Missouri for debate
Oct. 6 - Colorado
Oct. 5 - Iowa
Edwards:
Scheduled to go to Minnesota Tuesday
Oct. 14 - Oregon, Iowa
Oct. 13 - Oregon
Oct. 12 - Colorado
Oct. 11 - Iowa
Oct. 10 - Wisconsin
Oct. 7 - New Jersey
Oct. 6 - Florida,
Oct. 5 - Ohio for debate
Bush
Heading to New Jersey Monday
Oct. 14 - Nevada
Oct. 13 - Arizona, for debate
Oct. 12 - Ohio, Colorado
Oct. 11 - New Mexico, Colorado
Oct. 10 - Minnesota
Oct. 9 - Iowa, Missouri post-debate breakfast
Oct. 8 - St. Louis, Missouri for debate
Oct. 7 - Wisconsin
Oct. 6 - Pennsylvania, Michigan
Oct. 4 - Iowa
Cheney
Oct. 14 - Pennsylvania, Florida
Oct. 13 - Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania
Oct. 12 - Iowa, Minnesota, Ohio
Oct. 11 - New Jersey
Oct. 10 - no events
Oct. 7 - Florida
Oct. 6 - Florida
Oct. 5 - Ohio for debate
If the Kerry camp is so wildly confident that they’re keeping all of the important Gore states, why are they having Kerry and Edwards spend so much time in Blue States?
That's an inordinate amount of time to spend in states that are supposed to already be in the Democratic column. Note also that two of the non-debate-site red states on that list are New Hampshire and Nevada, and neither one alone is enough to put Kerry over the top.
Would a Bush supporter prefer the President to be up more? Certainly. But look at the amount of time he and Cheney are spending in New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, New Jersey - all blue states where he's on the offense. Right now the Bushies are defending five states, really - Ohio, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire and Colorado. And obviously, neither New Hampshire or Nevada alone would put Kerry over 271, assuming he holds all the Gore states.
Right now, Kerry and Edwards are putting enormous time - a resource where he can't just raise more - into defending blue states. This could change. But for now, Kerry’s playing defense, while Bush plays offense.
Also, Kerry Spot readers in the New York area ought to pick up the New York Sun tomorrow and check the op-ed page. One of your favorite writers is analyzing why Bush’s chances are better than the polls might have you believe. |
