Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (54383)	10/18/2004 3:58:41 AM
From: Snowshoe	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

>>I believe China boom is over for a while and valuations of a lot of things there and to do with China will collapse<< Jay, am I right that you are bluntly reassessing your position on this? Seems to me that a little while ago you were merely calling for a bit of a cooling off in the rate of Chinese growth. Now your tone seems to have changed. BTW, the local paper here is running a series on the proposed world-class gold/copper mine a few hundred miles west of here. This monster has about 16.5 billion pounds of copper that could be looking for a market in about 5 years. And 26.5 million ounces of gold.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (54383)	10/18/2004 6:08:44 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 74559

<a) I believe China boom is over for a while and valuations of a lot of things there and to do with China will collapse;> In US$ too? The apartment I didn't buy early this year will hopefully be cheaper next time I look. <(b) Deflation is "full on" and this time, unlike the last time, will be for real, and unstoppable by interest rate decrease nor helicoptering money, just as neither made ZeroDotZero difference in Japan;> Actually, Japan's mass money production worked out okay. Property prices fell by 80%, slowly and steadily over a decade, without precipitating cascading implosion. Unemployment barely budged upwards. GDP per capita continued unabated. All is well in Japan. If money hadn't be helicoptered all over the place, the situation would have been worse and possibly horrible. <(c) Earth's GDP will not go <<boom>>, but "kaboom";> People want to live, they want to buy, they accept working, they produce stuff, they get paid, they go shopping, there's no shortage of resources to feed production lines [which increasingly require nothing in the way of production other that clicking copy/paste - check out skype.com, coming to your house one of these days]. Why would people who want things stop producing things they want? With more people producing, GDP will go up, not down. GDPs are going up. <(d) Oil price will level off;> And decline. Oil is uncompetitive with too many things at $55 a barrel. It has to drop. Futures contracts are for cheaper oil. <(e) CDMA will not be profitable, and its sponsors will not get rich;> It has been profitable for several years already. Its sponsors are already rich. The process is gathering speed and strength. Profit growth and revenue growth and subscriber growth is phenomenal. BREW has barely kicked in. Other things are in infancy stage. (f) <<Sales of Chinese/India products and services continue to boom>> <and unemployment will rise in the developed economies, coupled with ferocious political backlash, and garnished with seious protectionism, leading to even worse deflation (you know the script);> "Protectionism" and trade disruption could indeed put paid to Earth's economy, but I suspect that's unlikely. John Howard was returned for more of the same and King George II might be too. Protectionism isn't making much headway so far. Unemployment in the USA is too low to be a major issue demanding protectionism. (g) <<Dow 'profits' increase, Dow share prices increase>> <is a 'wishful thinking' and a 'nothing doing'> We'll see. So far there has been 4 years of sideways movement, with some up and down and up and down. Meanwhile, umpty $billion has been printed and needs a home. Corporate balance sheets are a good home. Mqurice

To: TobagoJack who wrote (54383)	10/19/2004 10:57:50 AM
From: brian h	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

""""(e) CDMA will not be profitable, and its sponsors will not get rich;"""" I do not do DD on your other watches. Not sure on others. :-) Just exactly how did you do to CDMA supporters? Do you sell short on VZ, PCS, China Unicom, Vodafone, NTT DoCoMo, and other wireless operators? Or do you short on Siemens, QCOM, TXN, Nokia, Sony-Ericsson, NEC, LG, Samsung, etc? Could you be more specific? I bet these comapnies should buy NEM shares instead. :-) ------------------------------------------- Siemens Selects QUALCOMM's Chipsets to Address the Rapidly Expanding WCDMA (UMTS) Market Tuesday October 19, 9:02 am ET SAN DIEGO, Oct. 19 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- QUALCOMM Incorporated (Nasdaq: QCOM - News), pioneer and world leader of Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA) digital wireless technology, today announced that Siemens Communications, the telecommunications group within Siemens AG, will build a range of wireless multimedia handsets based on chipsets from QUALCOMM's WCDMA (UMTS) Mobile Station Modem(TM) (MSM(TM)) portfolio. "Siemens has a long tradition of providing high quality products, and our selection of QUALCOMM's chipsets will enable us to continue that tradition," said Thorsten Heins, Member of the Board of Siemens Communications. "QUALCOMM's WCDMA (UMTS) product portfolio provides us with the ability to create multiple products across varied market segments while reducing development costs." "This agreement is another endorsement of the quality achieved by the rigorous end-to-end modem and applications testing that QUALCOMM is known for in the industry," said Dr. Sanjay K. Jha, president of QUALCOMM CDMA Technologies. "We've developed a long-term WCDMA (UMTS) strategy that expands our portfolio to include EDGE, HSDPA and Enhanced Uplink -- providing our customers with solutions that achieve their short- and long-term goals." -------------------------------------------------------- Lucent Technologies Announces Contracts with China Unicom Totaling $107 Million for CDMA Expansion Projects BEIJING--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct. 19, 2004-- Lucent Provides Equipment and Services to Increase Network Capacity and Coverage for China Unicom's CDMA Networks in Zhejiang, Shaanxi and Liaoning Provinces Lucent Technologies (NYSE: LU) today announced a series of contracts totaling $107 million with China Unicom's provincial subsidiaries in Zhejiang, Shaanxi and Liaoning for their CDMA network expansion projects. Lucent will supply its industry-leading CDMA2000 solutions to improve the capacity and coverage of Unicom's mobile networks in the three provinces. Lucent Worldwide Services, Lucent's services arm, will support these network deployments. With this expansion, China Unicom will be able to offer new revenue-generating services such as video-on-demand, live streaming audio and high-speed mobile Internet access to its subscribers. Because Lucent's equipment can be cost-effectively upgraded to support more advanced third-generation (3G) services, these deployments also will lay a solid foundation for the future evolution to 3G. ---------------------------------------- Siemens Wins Malaysian 3G Deal By Robin Arnfield Wireless NewsFactor October 18, 2004 6:35PM German electrical-engineering firm Siemens has won a contract from Maxis Communications to help the Malaysian wireless carrier upgrade its network to high-speed technology. Maxis, Malaysia's largest cellular-telephony operator, has chosen Siemens as one of its 2G/GSM and 3G/W-CDMA infrastructure suppliers. 2G, 2.5G, 3G Under the terms of the three-year contract, the Siemens Communications Group will provide and install infrastructure for Maxis' 2G switching network in Malaysia and also upgrade the existing switching infrastructure to a 3G/UMTS mobile network based on W-CDMA transmission technology. The contract is the third 3G order for Siemens in Asia. "As well as supplying 2G/GSM equipment, we will also be supplying 2.5G GPRS technology," Siemens spokesperson Christian Hoenicke told NewsFactor, adding, "We cannot disclose the value of our contract with Maxis." Radio Network The Maxis contract includes the option of deploying 3G radio network equipment and professional services, including network design and system integration . "This will ensure that Maxis can quickly move to meet future customer growth in mobile data services," Siemens says in a statement. Siemens has been working with Maxis since 1995 as a supplier of 2G/GSM mobile technology. As of June 2004, Maxis had 5.12 million customers, giving it over 40 percent of the Malaysian wireless-telephony market. Leading Player The 3G/W-CDMA contract with Maxis reinforces Siemens' position as a leading global player in the 3G market. "We have 30 3G customers around the world, including Vodafone, T-Mobile and Taiwan's TCC," Hoenicke said. "Our technology development partner for 3G/W-CDMA is NEC." "One out of every two 3G/W-CDMA networks in commercial service throughout the world today comes from Siemens and its technology partner NEC , which means that the two companies cover 90 percent of all 3G subscribers worldwide," Siemens says in a statement. BH