To: Skywatcher who wrote (47103 ) 10/20/2004 3:48:50 PM From: IQBAL LATIF Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 50167 Just to refresh your thoughts, this was how the 'media' was predicting that war will be fought around BAGHDAD? Now any piece of news that helps clean the egg on their face it is always a delight, although loss of human life in the tussle is not the real issue, it is about how correct ' we were.' The Pentagon plan for Baghdad is to encircle the huge, sprawling city of 6 million and then calibrate a series of urban attacks. But Baghdad is not Ramallah on the West Bank. The Jordanian intelligence source swears the still non-decapitated regime can survive a siege for months. Saddam - a huge admirer of Josef Stalin - is placing all his bets on the Stalingrad scenario. Of the six Republican Guard divisions, three of them, armored and with around 12,000 soldiers each, are firmly entrenched in Baghdad's inner defensive ring. The key elite Medina division is in the south of the city - ready to face the Americans and already under B52 bombing. Behind the Republican Guards there are still four brigades of the Special Republican Guards, with at least 10,000 and as many as 25,000 soldiers either placed inside Baghdad or back in Tikrit, Saddam's birthplace 160 kilometers to the north. They are disposed in four motorized infantry brigades and are very well trained in urban guerrilla. This is of course Saddam's Praetorian guard, coming overwhelmingly from the Albu Nasr tribe in Tikrit, from Baiji and from villages near Baghdad and west of Mosul. Asia Times Online has already reported how Saddam can count on the support of a complex network of tribes, clans and sub-clans in the Sunni center of Iraq (What is the US really up against?, February 21) Saddam is rallying his troops non-stop: "Inflict damage on them, and although it may not be big, you'll see how they will flee because they are away from home and because they are aggressors." He has made another jihad call on TV to the tribal and clan chiefs, encouraging them on the guerrilla war path: "Fight them in pockets, and when their columns move, hit their front and rear. Those of you who have been reluctant to fight and are waiting for the order, consider this to be the command of faith and jihad and fight them." Much of the resistance encountered by the Americans and the British in the Shi'ite south was by tribesmen and clansmen, some equipped with very sophisticated weapons. A mix of Republican and Special Republican Guards, civilian and military security, secret police and civilian militias will offer fierce resistance to the Americans. A well as Saddam, the 8,000 men of the Mudiriyah al-Am al-Amma (the secret police) all come from Tikrit: this is largely an extended family affair. Civilian militias - composed of five competing security forces - will be decisive in urban guerrilla warfare. These forces include the 5,000 men of the al-Amn al-Khas (the Special Forces) and the 4,000 men of the al-Mukhabasad al-Amma (intelligence services), which are spread out all over the country. There are also the 6,000 men from the al-Idakhard al Askkariyya (military intelligence) and the 5,000 men of Amm al-Askariyya (military security) - a secret police that answers directly to the Ministry of Defense and controls the key central district of Baghdad (their headquarters has already been bombed). There are still the 8,000 men of the Mudiriyah al-Am al-Amma, the secret police which directly depends on the Ministry of the Interior (all of these men also come from Tikrit). What is more surprising in this conflict is the fundamental shift in the political analyses and punditry churned out by the news organisations concerning the "difficulties of laying a successful siege to Baghdad". What has happened to the intellectual integrity of our media analysts when very few now actually discuss their flawed "opinions" of the course of the war. Zachary Latif 23:16