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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (14106)	10/26/2004 10:47:16 PM
From: RealMuLan	Respond to of 116555

>>My best guess is that China hopes Kerry wins,<< I don't think so<g>, Mish. China actually does not care much who wins since the two come out as a wash<g> Kerry-- will push RMB revalue harder, will resort more of protectionism. Bush -- will keep selling Taiwan weapons, and force China to spend big on military budget. But if China has to choose, then it would rather choose Bush over Kerry<g>

To: mishedlo who wrote (14106)	10/26/2004 11:11:52 PM
From: RealMuLan	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116555

Mish, in case the US cannot control Chen any more, and he is going to declare quasi-independence, and may drag the US into a war with China, do you think this is a bargaining chip? And Mish, do you really think what Powell said indicates a policy change on the US side? I don't think so. It is simply a way telling Taiwan, stop any action which intend to change the status quo. The US is ready yet. Do you think the US is ready to be dragged in the war with China? seriously? As RMB revalue, China will do it sooner or later. But for the sake of US, as well as plenty of other nations,too, China should be really cautious to prevent what had happened in Asia in 1997 happening in China again. If that happens in China, that will be as bad, or worse than what happened after the Great Leap Forward, if you ever heard that phrase<g> No matter how hard other nations, including the US, push, if China is not read, it will not revalue Yuan. The stake is just too high.