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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (20837)	10/28/2004 12:37:21 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Followup note to undecided vote: Several polls seem to go with undecided voters literally rather than leaning, and several with that approach are the ones with the larger Bush leads: TIPP with a 3 point Bush lead, shows 7% still undecided, 47 to Bush. ICR with a 3 Bush lead, shows 5% still undecided, 48 to Bush. Gallup is the odd one with a 5 Bush lead, 2% undecided, 51 to Bush. Zogby 2 point Bush lead, 5% undecided, 48 to Bush. Newsweek 2 point Bush lead, 5% undecided, 48 to Bush. Rasmussen 2 point Bush lead, 2% undecided, 50 to Bush. LA Times tie, 3% undecided, 48 to Bush. Wash Post 1 Kerry lead, 2% undecided, 48 to Bush. Average is about 4% undecided, so if 50% incumbent and undecided rule holds, and polling is picking up the actual voters (cell phoners? big minority or youth turnout?), then Bush still wins by 1%. Still a little early for the market to be getting the party hats on.

To: russwinter who wrote (20837)	10/28/2004 3:03:19 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Respond to of 110194

There's not only the "cell-phone" bias to polling, but there's a lot of bias towards people who spend more time at home, ie, retirees who have the time (and more importantly the inclination) to answer questions from pollsters. I think that's just as big a source of error, and a large part of the reason that polls in 2000 underestimated Gore's vote by 3-4 percent at the end. FWIW, I believe Kerry is slightly ahead based on the effect of this, both in the electoral college and popular vote, but we'll see....I'd love to see a demographic breakdown in some of these polls, but that is subject to error (ie, how do you know that Joe/Jane Blow who answers the phone is actually the age and/or gender that they say they are). In the end, only one poll counts (and that's only if there are no legal challenges, which is highly unlikely IMHO).