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To: BSGrinder who wrote (20869)	10/28/2004 3:59:39 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

The Blumenthal Mystery Poll site is pretty amazing and seems insightful. mysterypollster.com But again as I am a disenfranished Republican voting reluctantly for Kerry, I have have zero interest (my motivation is gaining some edge/insight as a speculator only) in "the spin" from either party. Do you think Blumenthal is baised? If not the world and probably markets are going to get a big wakeup call next Wed. morning as Wall Street and the Bush crowd are just convinced they will win, and have placed their bets accordingly. Message 20690765

To: BSGrinder who wrote (20869)	10/28/2004 5:07:20 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

1. The battleground states will decide the election, and Kerry is doing very well there. If Kerry wins Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida, he wins the election, no matter what happens elsewhere. PA is a given Kerry leads in 9 out of 10 polls the other being a tie. Kerry wins EITHER FL or OH and it is probaly over Kerry wins FL and it IS over If it is OH the Kerry also needs to win eith IA or WI, or pick up a surprise somewhere else National polls are meaningless noise right now for the most part. As long as Bush stays below 49% Bush is unlikely to win. The TRUE battleground states are OH IA WI FL NM Potential Surprise states are NV CO AR If Kerry could swing one or more of those he might be able to afford losing all of IA WI FL NM. That said, races would be peculiar if that transpired. Extremely unlikely. More likely however is that IF Kerry wins FL he does pick up one of the potential surprises on the side. I have a hard time believing Bush can lose FL and win the rest of what I call the battleground states. Kerry winning ONE of the big ones + one other is enough (two out of 5 as long as 1 is FL or OH) Mish

To: BSGrinder who wrote (20869)	10/28/2004 5:12:25 PM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

Found this Blumenthal info on youth voters intriguing. They are using 2000 likely voter matrix for this first time voter group, and yet all indications are that interest is higher. It's based on the Newsweek poll which has Bush ahead 48-46, with 5% undecided, and Post/ABC, Kerry 49-48-2 undec. Over the last few days, two polls released subgroup results among voters who say they will cast their first presidential ballots in this election. The Newsweek survey, released over the weekend, found that 15% of registered voters and 9% of likely voters say they will cast their first vote for president ballot in 2004. Notably, these first-time likely voters prefer John Kerry to George Bush by a 21-point margin (57% to 36%). On Tuesday, the ABC Polling Unit found a similar number of likely voters (10%) reporting that 2004 would be their first presidential vote. They also preferred Kerry, but by a narrower margin (54% to 43%). The ABC analysis includes other helpful details: The overwhelming majority (80%) of first-time voters are under 30 years of age. They tend to be lower income, less well-educated and more often minority than repeat voters. The ABC release also noted that Kerry's 11-point margin among new voters is "about the same as Al Gore's margin among first-timers, nine points, in 2000" (the 2000 result comes from exit polls). They also report that the percentage of first time voters in their sample of likely voters (10%) is roughly comparable to percentage of first timers in the 2000 exit polls (9%). As I write about likely voter models over the next few days, one issue will be most important: Will turnout among first time voters be significantly higher this year and will the likely voter models catch such an increase if it occurs? The share of first-time voters projected by the ABC and Newsweek likely voter models is no different than in 2000, even though ABC notes in its release that "turnout overall is looking to be up: Sixty-two percent of likely voters are following the race very closely, up 20 points from this time in 2000, and Americans are four points more apt to say they're registered to vote." More related background on youth voters. Message is that they are more engaged now than in 2000. Doesn't seem that the traditional pollsters are accounting for this. My SWAG is that this group, more so than "minorities" is what takes Kerry over the top. Maybe my bias is that I see them Kerry campaigning everywhere around Portland, Or. biz.yahoo.com Key comment, wonder how this compares with 2000? Must be much higher on both sides, but especially Kerry. Interest in the election is high. Seven in ten (69%) young registered voters say they have quite a bit or a great deal of interest in the campaign for President. College grads are especially focused on election news (81%). However, each candidate's strong supporters (75% Bush, 84% Kerry) are interested in the campaign than their weak supporters (46% Bush, 49% Kerry).

To: BSGrinder who wrote (20869)	10/28/2004 7:01:31 PM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

Blumenthal tackles cell phone only users: mysterypollster.com How likely are these differences to cause error in the political polls? We could calculate the "coverage error" that results from excluding wireless-only adults from political polls if we knew two things: (1) How the vote preferences of wireless only adults differ from those with working landlines and (2) the percentage of all likely voters with only wireless service. Unfortunately, both numbers are unknown. Still, assume for the sake of argument that wireless adults are 5% of the electorate, that a survey of wired households shows a 48%-48% tie and that the missing wireless-only voters prefer John Kerry by a 20-point margin (58% to 38% - a pure but plausible guess based on the numbers for renters, low income, etc). If we were able to include the wireless only adults, it would change the overall preference by only one point - Kerry would lead 48.5% to 47.5%. Keep in mind that two factors will work to reduce this small potential error: Wireless-only voters are likely to turn out at a lesser rate than those with wired phones, and pollsters typically weight to make up for overall differences in gender, age, race and education.